Today Politico is reporting that Romney is leading among Middle-Class voters by 14% .... ok.
So, I'm no pollster by any means but I can read and process what I read but this Politico article makes zero sense to me.
First off, the authors, Ed Goeas & Brian Nienaber, are Republican pollsters (bias - duh) but more than just bias, it seems the authors are actually lying and I'm hoping some of you brilliant Kossacks can help me figure this out.
Politico Republican authors wrote:
In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families,
Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent).
Here is the pdf data results from the poll:
If the Presidential election were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote...
Romney/definitely ............................. 39%
Romney /probably ............................... 6%
Romney/lean ........................................ 1%
Obama/definitely ............................... 45%
Obama/probably .................................. 4%
Obama/lean .......................................... 1%
Ok, I don't see where the Republican authors of the Politico article got that Romney has a 14 point lead when Obama's 45 is greater than Romney's 39.
Politico seem to be giving erroneous numbers, they print 55% to 41% but I see Obama is clearly ahead 45% to 39%.
Even if you add Romney's: 39+6+1 you still don't get 55 for Romney, you get 46. Also, if you add Obama's 45+4+1 you don't get Politico's 41, you get 50. (Can anyone reading this figure this out?)
It gets stranger ... read after the orange squiggle
Politico writes:
Middle-class families are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of
Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable),
and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable)
Yet, it appears their data shows otherwise
For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and if so, whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so.
Barack Obama
FAVORABLE Strong: 41%
FAVORABLE Somewhat Strong: 12%
UNFAVORABLE Strong: 36%
UNFAVORABLE Somewhat: 9% 36%
never heard of 1%
Mitt Romney
FAVORABLE Strong: 30%
FAVORABLE Somewhat Strong: 16%
UNFAVORABLE Strong: 40%
UNFAVORABLE Somewhat: 4%
never heard of 1%
Seriously, where the heck did Politico get their numbers the published, Romney Favorable 51% and Obama Favorable 48% ... what am I not seeing?
Ok, finally, Politico published that Romney was leading Obama on "issues"
These middle-class families ... turn even more negative toward Obama on specific areas;
the economy 56 percent disapprove;
spending 61 percent disapprove
taxes, 53 percent disapprove
Medicare 48 percent disapprove
and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove.
But, the data shows otherwise
14. The economy
APPROVE Strong 24%
APPROVE Somewhat 24%
DISAPPROVE Strong 43%
DISAPPROVE Somewhat 8%
[Yet Politico published 56% disapprove?]
15. Foreign policy
APPROVE Strong 32%
APPROVE Somewhat 18%
DISAPPROVE Strong 33%
DISAPPROVE Somewhat 12%
[Yet Politico published 50% disapprove?]
16. The federal budget and spending
APPROVE Strong 18%
APPROVE Somewhat 22%
DISAPPROVE Strong 47%
DISAPPROVE Somewhat 10%
[Yet Politico published 61% disapprove?]
17. Taxes
APPROVE Strong 29%
APPROVE Somewhat 22%
DISAPPROVE Strong 35%
DISAPPROVE Somewhat 11%
[Yet Politico published 53% disapprove?]
18. Medicare
APPROVE Strong 34%
APPROVE Somewhat 16%
DISAPPROVE Strong 34%
DISAPPROVE Somewhat 10%
[Yet Politico published 48% disapprove?]
It gets even stranger ...
Politico reports
All of this data make clear that Romney has won the strong support of middle-class families and is leading the president on an overwhelming majority of key measurements beyond just the ballot.
In fact, when respondents were asked who, Obama or Romney, would best handle a variety of issues,
Romney led on all but one including the economy (+9 percent),
foreign policy (+3 percent),
spending (+15 percent),
taxes (+7 percent),
Medicare (+2 percent),
and jobs (+10 percent).
Ironically, the one measurement Obama led Romney on was “standing up for the middle class” (+8 Obama), reinforcing that often the Democrats win the message war with the middle class, but not their hearts and souls.
But, the raw data shows otherwise
For each one, who will better handle this issue
20. The economy
Obama 49%
Romney 48%
[Where did Politico get Romney +9 here?]
21. Foreign policy 43% 52% * 1% 4%
Obama 52%
Romney 43%
[Where did Politico get Romney +3 here?]
22. The federal budget and spending
Obama 45%
Romney 50
[Where did Politico get Romney +15 here?]
23. Taxes
Obama 50%
Romney 46%
[Where did Politico get Romney +7 here?]
24. Medicare
Obama 52%
Romney 43%
[Where did Politico get Romney +2 here?]
25. Standing up for the middle class
Obama 57%
Romney 38%
[Where did Politico get Obama +8 here?]
26. Jobs
Obama 48%
Romney 48%
[Where did Politico get Romney +10 here?]
I admit, I cannot figure out how Politico derived at the numbers they published when the
link they gave for their raw data shows that Politico's numbers appear to be erroneous.
Can some smart person reading this explain to me what I am doing wrong and why the numbers I see in the raw data do not equal the numbers that Politico published for the Republican authors Ed Goeas & Brian Nienaber?