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Leading Off:
• House: Following up on the batch of 24 polls of House Republican districts they released a week ago, MoveOn commissioned another dozen from PPP, and here they all are in summary form. As before, PPP put each Republican incumbent up against a "generic Democrat," not a named opponent. And once again, after the initial ballot test, the firm also asked several questions relating to the shutdown and debt ceiling, and then posed the head-to-head matchup again—a so-called "informed" ballot test that is a common polling technique. (Both generic polling and informed ballot polling come with important caveats, which we discussed in detail, a caveat we examined in our earlier post.)
In the table below, "O%" refers to Barack Obama's share of the vote in each congressional district in 2012. The "Δ" or "delta" refers to the change in net performance from the initial ballot question to the informed ballot question.
CA-25 |
48 |
Buck McKeon |
38-43 |
-5 |
44 |
46 |
-2 |
42 |
51 |
-9 |
-7 |
FL-27 |
53 |
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
47-42 |
5 |
45 |
47 |
-2 |
42 |
53 |
-11 |
-9 |
MI-06 |
49 |
Fred Upton |
34-53 |
-19 |
38 |
51 |
-13 |
36 |
56 |
-20 |
-7 |
MI-08 |
48 |
Mike Rogers |
42-40 |
2 |
46 |
43 |
3 |
44 |
47 |
-3 |
-6 |
NJ-02 |
54 |
Frank LoBiondo |
44-37 |
7 |
46 |
40 |
6 |
46 |
44 |
2 |
-4 |
NJ-03 |
52 |
Jon Runyan |
39-40 |
-1 |
46 |
42 |
4 |
45 |
47 |
-2 |
-6 |
NY-02 |
52 |
Peter King |
61-29 |
32 |
56 |
32 |
24 |
53 |
38 |
15 |
-9 |
PA-06 |
48 |
Jim Gerlach |
34-43 |
-9 |
41 |
46 |
-5 |
41 |
48 |
-7 |
-2 |
VA-10 |
49 |
Frank Wolf |
42-38 |
4 |
45 |
45 |
0 |
42 |
46 |
-4 |
-4 |
WA-03 |
48 |
Jamie Herrera Beutler |
45-37 |
8 |
49 |
41 |
8 |
50 |
45 |
5 |
-3 |
WA-08 |
50 |
Dave Reichert |
32-47 |
-15 |
42 |
49 |
-7 |
40 |
52 |
-12 |
-5 |
WI-01 |
47 |
Paul Ryan |
49-45 |
4 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
48 |
46 |
2 |
-5 |
Last time, in part because there were just so many polls, we focused on the global picture that PPP was painting of the 2014 midterms. But this time, look at a few of the more interesting individual results here, especially since this batch of polling focuses on second-tier seats that haven't gotten much attention so far this cycle.
As you can see from the second column of the chart, the districts tested all hover just above and below the 50 percent mark for Obama, meaning they should theoretically be competitive, especially those the president actually won. But the problem for Democrats is that, for the most part, these seats are held by strong Republican campaigners who have done a good job of convincing voters of their moderation and who tend to raise money in bunches. That creates a vicious cycle whereby would-be Democratic candidates shy away from challenging these incumbents, thus making them look all the more invincible when the next election rolls around.
But sometimes office-holders can get caught napping, as in the case of McKeon, whom we wrote about just the other day. McKeon won the narrowest race of his 20-year career last cycle against underfunded Democrat Lee Rogers, who is running again and showing signs that he's stepped up his game this time. McKeon's weak approvals and two-point deficit against a generic Dem will be heartening to Rogers.
The other Republicans in negative territory—Ros-Lehtinen, Upton, Gerlach, and Reichert—have either avoided or survived serious challenges in recent years, and for now, they all lack notable opponents. But the pounding that the GOP has taken over the shutdown, combined with polling like this, could inspire Democrats who had opted to stay on the sidelines to reconsider those choices. Upton in particular could be vulnerable, as MoveOn's first set of polls showed three other Michigan Republicans in very poor shape, so perhaps there's an unusually high level of anti-GOP sentiment in the state.
Some other races on this list, though, probably require Democrats to wait for another cycle—or a retirement. King, the most visible (if two-faced) spokesman for GOP "moderates" in the shutdown fight, looks very strong. And somewhat surprisingly, Herrera Beutler's standing is considerably better than that of Reichert, her more seasoned colleague in the district next door. But if someone like LoBiondo were to decline to seek re-election, that sort of seat would instantly become a top target.
Ultimately, as PPP's Tom Jensen says in his polling memo, "Democrats must recruit strong candidates and run effective campaigns in individual districts if they are to capitalize on the vulnerability revealed by these surveys." You can't beat somebody with nobody, and right now, Democrats have too many nobodies. If that changes, then what had been a very tough forecast for Democratic chances of taking back the House would undoubtedly improve.
3Q Fundraising:
• IA-Sen: Bruce Braley (D): $900,000 raised, $2.3 million cash-on-hand; Sam Clovis (R): $75,000 raised, $35,000 cash-on-hand
• KY-Sen: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R): $2.3 million raised, $10 million cash-on-hand; Matt Bevin (R): $222,000 raised (plus a $600,000 personal loan)
• MI-Sen: Gary Peters (D): $1 million raised, $2.5 million cash-on-hand
• WV-Sen: Shelley Moore Capito (R): $776,000 raised, $3.2 million cash-on-hand
Senate:
• CO-Sen: State Rep. Amy Stephens has announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination, for the unenviable task of going up against incumbent Sen. Mark Udall. Stephens has some bipartisan stains on her record (from the point of view of running in a GOP primary, of course) , most notably co-sponsoring the creation of Colorado's ACA exchange, but she can also point to having worked for the conservative group Focus on the Family. She joins a surprisingly large field, including 2010 nominee Ken Buck and state Sens. Owen Hill and Randy Baumgardner. (David Jarman)
• OR-Sen: State Rep. Jason Conger has made it clear he's kicking off his campaign for Senate on Tuesday, with multiple events scheduled—not the kind of thing you do, as Jeff Mapes notes, if you're going to say no. And after another Republican recently declared his own bid, Conger said that "apparently we're going to be contestants in the same primary." Why play games like this? Just announce when you're ready to announce.
Gubernatorial:
• GA-Gov: The ethics investigation into Republican Gov. Nathan Deal, which we discussed in the previous Digest, has taken a new turn. According to Channel 2 Action News, the FBI is now investigating allegations that aides loyal to Deal sabotaged an ethics inquiry regarding Deal's campaign finances during his 2010 run for governor by altering and destroying records.
The commission settled those underlying charges with just a $3,350 against Deal, much less than the $70,000 a staff attorney had recommended. That same attorney now says she's spoken with FBI agents. There's no telling where something like this might go, but it could be big, particularly given its "coverup-not-the-crime" nature.
• MA-Gov: A new poll from Western New England University confirms that Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley is in the driver's seat in the race to succeed outgoing Governor Deval Patrick. Coakley appears to have recovered from whatever damage her failed 2010 Senate bid did to her reputation and now sports a 52-27 favorability rating among registered voters. She also leads likely GOP nominee Charlie Baker 54-34. Should state Treasurer Steve Grossman pull of a primary upset against Coakley, he would also start out the favorite against Baker, with a 43-30 edge. (Darth Jeff)
• ME-Gov: In their first poll of Maine's gubernatorial race since Dem Rep. Mike Michaud joined the field, Critical Insights finds him leading with 33 percent, while GOP Gov. Paul LePage takes 30 and independent Eliot Cutler is at 24. That's a slightly smaller edge for Michaud than other recent polls, and it also represents Cutler's best showing in a while. But so far, except for PPP, every pollster whose tested the race has only done so once, so we don't have much in the way of trendlines to judge by.
• VA-Gov: This is both amazing chutzpah and extraordinary desperation. Ken Cuccinelli's latest ad actually attacks Democrat Terry McAuliffe over that bogus Rhode Island annuity story—the one that the AP royally screwed up in falsely claiming McAuliffe was the same "T.M." whom prosecutors accused in an indictment of lying to federal officials. The whole thing was bunk, though McAuliffe did invest with Joseph Caramadre, the scam artist who later pleaded guilty to fraud.
Cuccinelli's spot, though, tries to make it seem like McAuliffe was buddy-buddy with Caramadre and an active participant in his schemes. Says the narrator, shamelessly: "Court documents reveal Terry McAuliffe invested in an insurance scam that preyed on dying people. They stole the identities of the terminally ill then cashed in when they passed away." That "they" is particularly pregnant, a blatant attempt to rope together "McAuliffe" and "insurance scam."
McAuliffe says he had no knowledge of Caramadre's crimes, and there isn't even a hint of evidence to suggest otherwise. Cuccinelli's taking a serious risk with this ad, because these kinds of over-the-top accusations can backfire badly. But I guess Cuccinelli, far behind in all the polls, has no choice but to take risks—and that alone says a lot.
House:
• AL-01: Now or Never PAC, one of the few organizations that stuck with Todd Akin last year, has released a poll of the Nov. 5 GOP runoff in the special election for Alabama's 1st Congressional District. The survey, from Wenzel Strategies, finds ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne leading tea partying businessman Dean Young 44-37. NON-PAC is treating this as good news for Young, because he trailed by a larger 12-point margin (35-23) on primary night. But if even Wenzel is finding Young behind, that's not good news for their guy.
• FL-13: GOP Rep. Bill Young's retirement after 22 terms in this most swingy of swing seats has attracted a ton of names. Last year's Democratic nominee Jessica Ehrlich was already in the race when Young announced his departure, and it looks like she's about to be joined by a few Republicans. Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times reports that lobbyist and former Young general council David Jolly is planning to open an exploratory committee. Former Pinellas County Commissioner Neil Brickfield also looks like he'll run, with Brickfield saying he's "leaning more for running than against." Also in the race is political consultant Nick Zoller.
Other potential Republicans include Young's wife Beverly; his son Billy; County Commissioner Karen Seel; Clearwater Mayor George Cretekos; and former Clearwater Mayor Frank Hibbard.
Democrats still considering a run are Ben Diamond, who served as ex-CFO Alex Sink's general counsel and is the grandson of former Miami-Dade Congressman Dante Fascell; Pinellas County Commissioner and 2010 nominee Charlie Justice; fellow Commissioner Janet Long; St. Petersburg City Council candidate Darden Rice; former state House Speaker Peter Rudy Wallace, and infomercial pitchman Anthony Sullivan.
And one more potential Democratic candidate has emerged: Alex Sink herself. Sink, who lives outside the district in nearby Hillsborough, will reportedly announce her intentions as early as this week, according to SaintPetersBlog. Sink narrowly carried the district 49-47 against Rick Scott as she was losing the 2010 gubernatorial race statewide 49-48.
A number of prominent figures from both parties have ruled out candidacies. On the Democratic side, the list includes Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch and St. Petersburg mayoral candidate Rick Kriseman. Former Gov. Charlie Crist, now a Democrat, also doesn't sound particularly interested in halting his likely gubernatorial comeback bid for a congressional race. Republicans who have publicly ruled out a run include state Senators Jack Latvala and Jeff Brandes and County Commissioner John Morroni. Smith, the Times reporter, also casts doubt on whether former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker, another Republican, will make the jump. (Darth Jeff)
• IA-04: This is sooo thin, but it's tantalizing. A single throw-away line in an AP story on the bitter fight raging between establishment Republicans and their tea party nemeses offers this tidbit: "Iowa Republicans are recruiting a pro-business Republican to challenge six-term conservative Rep. Steve King, a leader in the push to defund the health care law." That's it, and nothing more. Well, keep an eye out, I suppose!
• LA-06: Fun stuff: Tony Perkins, the incendiary head of the conservative Family Research Council, says he's thinking about a run for Congress in Louisiana's open 6th District. The field has been slow to develop, so Perkins could definitely shake things up if he entered.
• NY-01: The establishment is starting to coalesce around state Sen. Lee Zeldin, with both the state Republican Party and the state Conservative Party formally endorsing him on Friday. As we noted previously, though, ex-Gov. George Pataki has sided with Zeldin's primary opponent, attorney George Demos.
Other Races:
• NYC Mayor: Marxist College: Marshal Vasilii de Blasiovich: 67, Kulak Josef Lhota: 23.
Grab Bag:
• FreedomWorks: If you followed the whole FreedomWorks debacle that unfolded late last year, it sounds like things still aren't going too well over there these days. BuzzFeed's Rosie Gray reports that fundraising is down, lavish expenses are the norm, and that the group, best known for sponsoring debt-hating tea partiers, had to seek a $1 million line of credit earlier this year just to stay afloat. Click through for the full details.
• House: Two polls released at the end of last week found Democrats moving into a surprisingly dominant position on the generic congressional ballot question. The much-hyped NBC/WSJ poll gave Democrats an 8-point lead, while a survey from Dem firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has it at D+10 (up from just D+4 in a poll fielded just a couple of days earlier). That makes Quinnipiac's recent D+9 seem like less of an outlier, but the overall Pollster average (with Rasmussen included) still currently works out to D+5.
Now, the problem with generic ballot is that no one is quite sure how to translate that into the number of seats that might flip, or what the tipping point is for where House control might switch—nor is that even possible, given the many variables like candidate quality and fundraising, which is why we at Daily Kos Elections generally prefer to think in terms of race-by-race analysis. But if we're seeing 8-10 point generic ballot margins, you're at least in the ballpark of talking credibly about the House changing hands.
Sam Wang seemed to imply last week that control would flip at D+7, while Alan Abramowitz, who seems to have the most fleshed-out model, sees D+8 a projecting out to only an eight-seat gain for Democrats. What does D+10 project to, in Abramowitz's model? We don't know, because the table stops at D+8! Abramowitz's predictions are perfectly linear, though, so extrapolating would point to an 11-seat gain. (David Jarman)