Bush has spent around $50 million on ads, both positive and negative. The positive ads are going to be limited in their effectiveness because Bush is already well-known by people--he doesn't have a lot of room to define himself since most people already have an opinion on him. The negative ads, though, have been somewhat effective in driving up Kerry's negatives, which is what Bush must do if he is going to win. His approval ratings are too low and people are too dissatisfied with the direction of the country for him to win the election if Kerry's positives stay up too high.
Things are about to change, though:
Flush with newly raised cash, Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry said Thursday he planned to beef up his television advertising just as President Bush was rolling back his own efforts on commercial airwaves.
The Massachusetts senator said he would soon begin a new round of TV advertising with a "positive, affirmative" message about his life story and political agenda.
One of Kerry's greatest strength during the primary season was his advertising. He put out some great biographical ads that really helped pump up his positive ratings. I expect to see the same sort of quality out of these new ads. Kerry is now going on the offensive and will be defining himself in positive terms with voters, rather than allowing Bush to frame him in negative terms. The article has a very telling quote about the main reason Kerry's negatives have been rising lately:
For Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator and Vietnam veteran, the most immediate challenge is to get voters to hear his story in his own words. So far, voters in swing states have heard more about Kerry from Bush ads than from the senator himself.
This is unacceptable, and we're about to see this problem rectified. As Kerry gets his message across on his terms, I think we'll see his negatives sink down a bit and his positives jump up. Most Americans don't know Kerry very well, and they're looking for information on him. A good set of positive biographical ads will do wonders for him right now and is going to give him a nice boost in the polls. This race is going to be looking pretty good in a few weeks, I suspect.
Another thing to take note of in the article is the money situation. Bush's money advantage isn't too big of an advantage anymore. Kerry is taking millions in left and right, case hand over fist. There are a lot of people in this country who want Bush out of office and they're putting their money on the line. According to the article Kerry raised $6.5 million at a single event. That would be a presidential record. If he keeps that up, Bush is in trouble. If Bush doesn't have a big money advantage, he's screwed. Period.
(Shameless Promotion: This was originally posted in my new blog, Nightmares For Sale. If you have a moment, please check it out. Thanks!)