There's no other way to spin it. With 60 million members of a volatile and fickle electorate watching, Bush looked like a lightweight. This is Reagan-Carter all over again: the incumbent, running a campaign based solely on building fear of change, proves himself that change is needed.
Last night's debate was THE moment that Iowans and New Hampshirites had in mind 8 months ago when they picked this man to go up against Bush. The gravitas. The seriousness. The authority on foreign affairs. The Lincoln look. The visual and intellectual matchup with Bush. It's the electability, stupid.
No, Kerry wasn't perfect. Far from it. I wish he would have hit Bush harder on neglecting homeland security, and I wish he would have talked less about courting allies and the UN (if I were JK's manager, rule #1 would be Don't say the word France!).
Here are a few themes I would like to see Kerry hit in the remaining debates:
- Slogans don't solve problems. With all the whining about "mixed messages", Bush seems to think what you say is more important than what you do. He's got it backward. Just because you call something "Healthy Forests Initiative" doesn't mean it will lead to healthy forests.
- Honest
Abe John. I think Kerry has got to hit Bush on honesty. This could immunize him from "flip-flop" attacks. From Medicare reform to WMD, Bush hasn't trusted Americans with the truth. Americans would rather their President be truthful than consistent.
- Bush has divided us, not united us. To take away Bush's prime advantage, namely his "steadfast" image, Kerry should focus on what Bush's ridigity has caused. Gridlock in Congress. Partisan rancor. Truly great leaders like Kennedy (and Reagan, if you will) are flexible and are able to build consensus. Bush can't do that. Kerry will.
Unfortunately for Bush, his road doesn't get any easier. The town hall format for the debate next Friday, instead of accentuating Bush's folksiness, will highlight his weakness at contemporaneous speaking. The questions from Gallup's hand-picked audience won't be knuckleballs - but they may be curveballs, which is a lot tougher than the tee-ball Bush gets to play with the White House press corps.
As for the third debate, Bush better hope that he still has a slight lead by then, because domestic policy is strictly Kerry's turf. Economy.. Environment.. Education.. all failures for Bush. Americans know a new direction is needed at home.
Last night, Bush had his best chance to deal a blow to Kerry and expand his lead in the horserace. He failed miserably.
We're in the home stretch, and JOHN KERRY is coming up on the outside....