The
LATimes has
new poll results in their Sunday edition. Although the poll only covers respondents who watched the debate, the results show Kerry improved his stats with those viewers across the board.
The poll, conducted Thursday night and Friday, surveyed 1,368 registered voters who participated in a Times survey last week and agreed to be contacted after the Sept. 30 debate. Among the group, 725 voters said they had watched the debate; it is their responses the poll reports. The poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Kerry leads Bush 49-47 among debate viewers. Other results below the fold.
It's implied that other unnamed post-debate polls don't show a Kerry lead. Presumably this includes Gallup.
For instance, in last week's Times poll, Kerry trailed Bush among all registered voters by 49% to 45%. But the voters who watched the matchup preferred Kerry by 48% to 47% for Bush before the debate. After the debate, viewers divided nearly the same way, with 49% favoring Kerry, 47% Bush.
That tracks with other post-debate polls showing improvements in Kerry's image but generally little immediate change in the race. The exception is a Newsweek poll conducted Thursday night through Saturday that showed Kerry leading Bush 49% to 46% among registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
But even if Kerry hasn't yet convinced respondents to vote for him, he's laying the groundwork for them to do so on election day by improving his image and his favorables:
As for the candidates' performances, viewers gave Kerry the edge on almost all questions. Before the debate, more of those who watched said they expected Bush to win than Kerry. But by 54% to 15%, viewers said they believed Kerry did a better job; independents who watched the debate preferred Kerry to Bush by more than 5 to 1.
Before the debate, those who ended up watching it were divided evenly on whether they expected Bush or Kerry to appear more knowledgeable. But, by 42% to 29%, viewers said they believed Kerry had seemed more knowledgeable.
By just over 2 to 1, viewers said Kerry was more effective at delivering his message. By more than 3 to 1, viewers said Kerry was more effective at responding under pressure. Viewers split on whether Kerry or Bush had seemed "most presidential," with Kerry leading by a statistically insignificant 40% to 38%.
Among the striking findings was the verdict on which candidate had displayed the strongest personality and character. Before the debate, by more than 2 to 1, the viewers had expected Bush to make the best impression. Afterward, they favored Kerry over Bush by 40% to 33% on that question.
Undecided voters may not yet be ready to embrace Kerry, but they're starting to lean his way:
Lorri Guy, a secretary from Memphis, Tenn., who watched the debate, may exemplify the extent, and limits, of Kerry's gains in the Times poll.
After the debate, she's still undecided. She voted for Bush in 2000 and continues to admire what she sees as his tenacity and firm response to terrorism. "He says what he's going to do and stands behind it," she said.
But now Guy is more open to the Massachusetts senator.
"I'm not quite sure yet where Kerry's going, but I got a better impression of him than I had," she said. "He seemed a little more precise; he seemed like he had more of a plan."
Guy is waiting to hear more from the candidates on the economy before deciding.
And it's hard to imagine that anything Bush can offer on the economy would convince anyone to return to his side.
There is one real surprise in the poll -- the debate actually slightly improved Bush's favorability numbers:
Among those who watched, Bush's approval rating after the debate was unchanged from before, with 49% approving and 50% disapproving. Bush's favorability rating among debate viewers improved slightly (though within the survey's margin of error). Before the debate, 51% of the watchers viewed Bush favorably and 49% viewed him unfavorably; afterward, the numbers were 52% and 47%.
But Kerry improved his favorability numbers even more:
Kerry made bigger gains among viewers. On the most basic measure, the share of viewers with a favorable impression of him rose from 52% before the debate to 57% after; the share with an unfavorable impression dropped from 46% to 41%.
Kerry also closed the gap or overtook Bush on other key issues:
|
Pre-debate margin |
Post-debate margin |
Difference |
Strong leadership |
+7 Bush |
+2 Bush |
+5 Kerry |
Honesty & Integrity |
+4 Bush |
+1 Kerry |
+5 Kerry |
Stronger Commander in Chief |
+2 Bush |
Tie |
+2 Kerry |
Plan for Iraq |
+1 Bush |
+3 Kerry |
+4 Kerry |
Terrorism |
+14 Bush |
+10 Bush |
+4 Kerry |
And finally, a whopping 57% of debate viewers would like to see the country head in a new direction, although 1/8 of these people would like Bush to be the one to take them there. (Assuming Kerry gets the remainder, that means Kerry basically starts with 50% of the total and builds from there.)
There are thirty days left until the election. Hopefully they'll all have news this good.