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From the diaries. These numbers would suggest that Arizona may be one of the sleeper Senate races of 2006. The raw numbers are after the fold, but the bottom line is the following, with April results in parenthesis:
Kyl (R) 44 (46)
Pederson (D) 29 (17) -- kos)
A new poll in Arizona tracking the US Senate race between Republican incumbent Jon Kyl and expected Democratic opponent Jim Pederson shows voters in the state are beginning to surge toward the challenger even before he has formally declared his candidacy. The poll was conducted by Wright Consulting Services from July 21, 2005 to August 10, 2005 among a representative sample of 600 likely general election voters in the state and it has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points at a 95% level of confidence. (Cross-posted at MyDD.com)
(Disclosure: the writer, the principal of Wright Consulting Services, has met and discussed this race with Pederson but has not, and will not, be involved, work for nor advise his campaign at any point prior to next year's general election.)
Pederson has gained 12 points since April in his quest to unseat the highly conservative Republican Kyl and the table below shows two very important trends are occurring:
Question: "In November of next year, in the race for US Senate, which ONE of the following candidates are you, personally, going to vote for?" (Candidates rotated)
Kyl Pederson Undec. K-Trend P-Trend U-Trend
Arizona 44% 29% 27% -2 pts +12 pts -10 pts
Democrat 15 57 28 -4 +16 -12
Republican 79 5 16 +7 +3 -10
Indep./Other 27 30 43 0 +19 -19
Maricopa 45 30 25 -3 +12 -9
Pima 44 31 25 +2 +9 -11
Rural AZ 41 28 31 -3 +16 -13
Male 44 26 30 -2 +5 -3
Female 43 32 25 +1 +15 -16
Age 18-35 49 15 36 +2 0 -2
Age 36-55 43 31 26 +3 +15 -18
Age 56-65 46 26 20 +4 +5 -9
Age 66+ 41 34 25 -6 +10 -4
Fund. Christ. 66 12 22 -2 +7 -5
Main./Lib. 42 32 26 -2 +8 -6
Not Religious 25 42 33 -5 +19 -14
The first trend of note is that Independent voters are surging into the Pederson column; he's gained 19 points among them since April.
Additionally, Pederson has made notable and significant gains among most of the voter groups in the state, primarily as a result of Undecided voters beginning to take a partisan choice in this race. This is quite unusual among Arizonans, as they prize their voting independence and tend to hold partisan choices close to the vest until late in many campaigns.
The fact a significant number of voters are making a partisan choice early may be an indicator of several key characteristics and developments relative to this race:
1) First, Kyl's support has been historically soft, as he has never had a tough opponent in any election in the state, whether running for the House or the Senate. He's `coasted' through weak opponents who had little or no money to mount significant campaigns against him. With Pederson's expected entry, Kyl will be faced with a Democrat known locally for organization and success. And one who has money. Pederson is a millionaire office and shopping center developer who has built a strong reputation and a profitable business in Arizona's real estate markets.
2) Kyl himself has a reputation here of being aloof, elitist, off-putting and, frankly, a snob. He has never stooped to building a positive image nor a strong relationship with the state's voters. This elitism and disconnectedness from voters in the face of a strong, sociable and likable challenger is a serious flaw that cannot be corrected in a short time. It is a weakness Pederson can exploit, we believe, with great success.
3) Kyl is also known as a mouthpiece of the Bush Administration, a Bush lackey and/or apologist, rarely departing in any way from positions, issues or talking points dictated from the White House and/or the RNC. This poll and other recent ones by us have documented a substantial erosion among voters in support for the Administration, its policies and actions, including Iraq. Thus, Kyl's image as a Bush lackey among independent-minded Arizona voters is another serious flaw that cannot be corrected quickly.
4) Kyl appears to know 'something's up', out of kilter, in this race as he has recently sprinted around the state to editorial boards and business interests talking up his plan to address illegal immigration. There is an air of desperation, `find an issue, any issue', to this recent behavior that has been noted by political insiders here. Further, the specifics of this plan really play to more extremist elements in the state's electorate, focusing on command/control/punishment as methods for border security and refusing to focus on business accountability. We know from our recent work such a plan is not in step with Arizona's voters and the numbers above clearly show he is not gaining traction among voters, given this tactic.
And 5) the table clearly shows Kyl draws his strongest numbers only from Republicans and fundamentalists. This shows his base constituency is very narrow in the state, as we have found in the past, leaving him vulnerable to additional 'out of touch' positioning as an ultra-conservative in a moderate state. (Yes, Arizona is politically moderate, on the whole.)
Finally, throughout all of this, yet-to-declare Democratic candidate Jim Pederson, not having campaigned at all yet, is benefiting mightily from a rapidly changing political environment and a widening realization among the state's voters regarding their interests, that `there's no there there' when it comes to Jon Kyl.
Boys and girls of the netroots, buckle up those seat belts. This one in Arizona may prove to be a real indicator of The Shape of Things to Come for extremist conservatives.