This diary is strictly for the hard-core election junkies who share my enthusiasm for the horse race. I am a well-versed student in Minnesota politics who has devised somewhat different strategies for victory for the various candidates in Minnesota's Senate and gubernatorial races that are only seven months away. I e-mailed several of the campaigns with my formulas. They may have studied them and they may have tossed them in the trash. I didn't hear back from any of them so I don't know. Whatever the case, I hope that Kossacks following these races find my strategies interesting or possibly even helpful in turning Minnesota a double shade of blue this November....
I'll start out with the Senate race. I know I'm gonna piss a few people off here, but Amy Klobuchar is the only Democratic Senate candidate I'm gonna single out here. Ford Bell is an admirable candidate who may very well have a future in progressive politics in Minnesota, but his abysmal showing in last month's straw poll solidified my opinion his chances of getting the nomination are somewhere below "slim and none" barring a miracle or a Wellstone crash-esque turn of events. If something of that nature does indeed happen, this campaign strategy would fit Bell nearly as closely as it would Klobuchar, so consider this account somewhat interchangeable if you're a die-hard Bell fan. Still, I'm writing this with a Klobuchar candidacy in mind.
Geographically speaking, Klobuchar vs. Kennedy is a Minnesota poli-sci geek's dream race....a classic feud between "Old Minnesota" and "New Minnesota" where Old MN is holding the better hand. Here are my thoughts of the geographic hotspots in each race and where Klobuchar either has an advantage or a liability:
1) HENNEPIN COUNTY--Minnesota's most populous county is where Klobuchar is the County Attorney. Outsiders and even many natives often make the mistake of believing the city of Minneapolis dominates this county, when in fact it makes up only 35% of the county's over population. The remaining two-thirds is a demographic potpourri of working-class inner-ring suburbs (Brooklyn Center, Richfield), wealthy but socially liberal second-ring suburbs (Minnetonka, Bloomington) and very wealthy conservative exurbs (Corcoran, Orono). Klobuchar's incumbency and this county's increasingly Democratic trendline could conceivably seal this race up single-handedly. John Kerry got 59% in Hennepin County in 2004, and when I saw those numbers roll in early in the evening, I knew that Bush's numbers in the other 86 Minnesota counties were most likely irrelevant. The same is true for Klobuchar. If she gets 60% in Hennepin County, and given that it's the county where she governs I'm very confident she will, it's almost impossible to see how the arithmatic works out in Kennedy's favor statewide.
2) DAKOTA COUNTY--Minnesota's most populous majority-suburban county is also the only suburban county that Mark Kennedy has not represented at some point during his six-year tenure in the House. The county has been growing rapidly and trending Republican in the last 10 years, but George Bush has never been as popular here as the traditional GOPers, winning by only one and two percentage points, respectively, in 2000 and 2004. Klobuchar is unlikely to WIN Dakota County, particularly with native son Tim Pawlenty headlining the state ticket in the Governor's race, but if she holds Kennedy's margin to less than five points, she's sitting very well statewide...and she can do it. Klobuchar seems very adept at appealing to independent middle-class young women, who are a huge demographic in Dakota County.
3) THE IRON RANGE--Klobuchar has familial roots in northeastern Minnesota's Iron Range, which is important because native Iron Ranger always overperform the average DFL candidate in MN-08. I originally believed Klobuchar grew up on the Iron Range, but another Kossack informed me that she spent very little of her youth on the Range, so overstating her ties to the region could be a miscalculation. But even without personal affiliation to the region, Democrats almost always pull in wider margins on the Iron Range in midterm elections than they do on Presidential election years (1994 being the definite exception to that rule). And the Carver County yuppie Kennedy preaching even further tax cuts for his neighbors seems unlikely to appeal at all to the hardscrabble blue-collar communities of northeastern Minnesota (which of course includes the big prize of the region...the city of Duluth).
4) ROCHESTER--Now Minnesota's third largest city, white-collar Rochester in the southeast corner of the state has been shifting decidedly against Republicans at exactly the time that we need them most to offset GOP gains in exurbia. George Bush won the city by a paltry one percentage point in 2004, at the same time as two Republican incumbent legislators bit the dust to novice DFL challengers. A faceoff between Klobuchar and Kennedy strikes me as likely to continue this trend. Turnout is key though. If we get Rochester voters to the poll, Klobuchar could win. If we don't, Kennedy will win, and could win by as much as 5-7 points. A strong GOTV effort like that of 2004 is needed here.
5) THE RED RIVER VALLEY--Northwestern Minnesota's sparsely-populated agricultural region is home to a large number of conservative Democrats that are often hard to convince to stick with their party in high-profile statewide and national races. Conventional wisdom is that Kennedy's vote for CAFTA will destroy him in this region, where the sugar industry is dominant and where CAFTA is viewed as a weapon of mass destruction to the already bruised local economy. Unfortunately, I'm not yet convinced. I was sure that Bush's embrace of free trade (along with the repeated pleas of sugar industry and union leaders to vote against the incumbent) was going to result in diametrically opposed outcomes in 2004 compared to 2000, when Bush absolutely crushed Al Gore in the region. The final result: only modest inroads for Kerry in the Red River Valley, with most of the area's population centers still going comfortably Bush. Beyond that, Kennedy grew up in western Minnesota and is much better versed in agriculture than the city slicker Klobuchar. Any election-night calculus that requires Klobuchar to win the Red River Valley for a statewide victory should frighten us. She COULD pull in boffo numbers in the region, but I wouldn't count on it.
Now for Klobuchar's likely Achille's heels this fall:
1) SUBURBIA AND EXURBIA--Basically all of MN-06 and much of MN-02 are likely to be solid Kennedy country. This includes the swing town of St. Cloud in central Minnesota, the old-line suburban counties such as Anoka and Washington north and east of Minneapolis and St. Paul, and the exurban counties that represent Minnesota's fastest-growing regions, such as Sherburne County, Wright County, Carver County and Scott County. I'm betting that Kennedy will consolidate support in his home turf, which is a scary proposition given the demographics of that home turf. John Kerry won St. Cloud. Amy Klobuchar probably will not. Bush won Anoka and Washington Counties by six and three-point margins, respectively. Kennedy is likely to win them both by double digits. And Bush won Sherburne, Wright, Carver and Scott by more than 20 points each. Kennedy's margins will be likely be closer to 2-1. Basically, Kennedy's wider margins in suburbia and exurbia are not likely to allow Klobuchar's huge margins in Hennepin and Ramsey to go as far as John Kerry's did two years ago.
2) MN's RURAL SOUTHWEST QUADRANT--Ordinarily, this vast rural area that extends to Iowa and South Dakota leans Republican, but usually generates margins of victory much softer than what most believe. Unfortunately, Mark Kennedy was both born in this area and represented it in Congress in 2001 and 2002 before redistricting moved him up to the suburbs. He's a known entity here, meaning he'll probably pull in impressive numbers in the region. Particularly troubling is that Kennedy's home county is Swift County, the most Democratic county in western Minnesota and the birthplace of the farm populist movement nearly a century ago. Several counties near Swift COunty remain reliably Democrat to this day, and suppressed DFL margins or even a Kennedy victory would not be helpful to what will probably be a close race.
Moving on to the Governor's race, Tim Pawlenty will not be easy to take down given his popularity in the suburbs. The challenge is even harder with left-of-center Independence candidate Peter Hutchinson in the race, likely to steal votes away from the DFL candidate. Still, nearly every poll indicates a very tight race, and of our three Democratic candidates could topple Pawlenty this fall. My strategies for them will be less elaborate than those for Klobuchar's, but here are "paths to victory" for each of the three major candidates...
MIKE HATCH. Frontrunner Mike Hatch has the benefit of widespread name recognition and two successful elections under his belt where he won by comfortable margins in Republican years. Hatch needs to run the table in rural Minnesota to offset what I predict will be an overwhelming Pawlenty margin in most suburbs, including those like Minnetonk where I predict Klobuchar will win in the Senate race. This works out well since Hatch has pulled in rockstar-caliber numbers in northern Minnesota in both Attorney General runs. His efforts on behalf of blue-collar workers in the area will dovetail nicely with a campaign built around "what's Pawlenty done for you lately?" pointing out the deep local government aid cuts the incumbent dealt the region early in his term. Hatch also seems poised to do well in western Minnesota, where previous recent DFL gubernatorial candidates have outperformed their anemic statewide averages.
But the fact remains that Hatch will need to win over at least suburban independents if he's come win statewide. Roger Moe did well in rural Minnesota in 2002 and still lost in a relative landslide due to Pawlenty's absolute dominance in the suburbs. My advice for Hatch would be Anoka County, which is blue-collar, populist and where he pulled in his best numbers of the suburban counties in 2002. Pawlenty's from Dakota County, so I'm not optimistic that Eagan will continue the blue streak that John Kerry started in 2004, nor do I think upper-income Hennepin County suburbs like Edina and Bloomington will find the slick "moderate" Pawlenty's job performance egregious enough to turn him out this fall. Hatch has a path to victory, but it will likely be decidedly different than Klobuchar's Senate path.
STEVE KELLEY--The State Senator from Hopkins is a very electable candidate, and a ticket headlined by him could compliment a ticket shared with Klobuchar, since both could maximize Democratic turnout in Hennepin County, particularly the swing suburbs. While I don't believe Mike Hatch could beat Pawlenty in wealthy second-ring suburbs like Edina and Bloomington, education-minded native son Steve Kelley probably could win there. The flip side of the Hennepin County dominance that would come from a ticket headlined by Kelley and Klobuchar is that there would be less incentive for outstate voters to head to the polls. Kelley's margins probably won't be as strong as Hatch's would be in northern Minnesota and the northern Mpls.-St. Paul suburbs, but he could still pull this out with a well-run campaign.
BECKY LOUREY--Let me say right off the bat that I don't believe Becky Lourey can win in the "new Minnesota". Only 15 years ago, a progressive like her could appeal to the liberals of the urban core and the populists of rural Minnesota, paving a road to victory Paul Wellstone-style. Today, the surge of center-right suburbanites makes a victory by someone like Lourey very difficult in Minnesota. Beyond that, Lourey is nowhere near as charismatic as Wellstone was. She's a great woman, but her path to victory would require a virtual monopoly on the 8th district along with margins in the core cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul even wider than Kerry pulled off. Furthermore, she'd have to count on Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson taking votes away from Pawlenty rather than the DFL candidate. Such a scenario is plausible, but I can't imagine the arithmatic working out to where Hutchinson snatches enough Pawlenty votes to make Lourey the winner.
Well, those are my thoughts on the matter. Feel free to add to or shred apart anything I wrote....