If the Bush League does attack Iran -- a big "if", though not nearly as big as I wish it was -- there are a number of possible scenarios. The most obvious possibility is a limited strategic airstrike on suspected nuclear sites. This scenario has the advantages of (possibly!) delaying Iran's nuclear program -- and giving the Admin a boost in the polls -- without committing troops and minimizing negative international reactions.
But an alternate possibility has been kicked around by armchair analysts that would be a more involved and longer-term commitment, but one that could also have longer-term benefits ... at least in the eyes of the people who brought us the mess that is Iraq. Call it the Khuzestan Gambit.
More on the flip side ...
Khuzestan is a province of Iran, in the southwest and bordering on Iraq. It was here that much of the fighting between Iraq and Iran occured, and for very good reasons. Those reasons might also make it a temptation for the Bush Administration.
(Map credit: Zoltán Grossman)
For one thing, Khuzestan (especially the southwest) is by far the least rugged part of Iran, which would make it easier for ground forces to take and hold. For another thing, the province is inhabited largely by people who are ethnic minorities in Iran, and might -- perhaps -- have less-sustained objections to being removed from Iran. (Some like the Arab Shi'ites might even appreciate it ... at least at first.) The clincher, though, is this: the Khuzestan province contains by some estimates 90% of Iran's oil, and therefore is the source of most of the nation's wealth. Control Khuzestan and you simultaneously control the oil and vastly cripple Iran's ability to fund counter-attacks and/or resistance.
Lending some immediacy to this scenario are claims by Iran that the US (and possibly Britian) is actively encouraging unrest in the province, possibly via remnants of Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK). (See Lolligolli's diary on that here.)
(Please note that I am not saying that invading Iran like this would be a good idea, or that it would even work. What I am saying is that I believe it's something that the Bush Administration could talk themselves into thinking would work.)
For a more in-depth treatment of this idea, please see Dr. Grossman's article here. Without that article (and other similar speculations that have gotten lost in my link history), I'd be as unaware of the possibility of the Khuzestan Gambit as most people.