What if, like all the other functioning democracies in the world, this country had more than two parties? What would they look like and how does this influence our position in the real world?
The two main divisions in American politics (and politics anywhere really) are those between people who place more trust in government or in business and those who rely on tradition to form their moral code or those who rely more on individual judgment. In theory this would mean that America would have four political parties to account for the various combinations of these two dividing lines. The numbers a lot of the Kos community have above their handles come from a web page that talks about a similar theme (link please?). This is what I think political America would look like if people formed these four parties:
Pro-government liberals would form a party that many of us would be comfortable in. It would consist of socialists, left wing Democrats, the Green Party, and other such groups. The base would be found in major metropolitan areas and college towns among the ranks of the "liberal elite". Their economic goal would be more regulation and their social focus would be pushing the envelope on issues of civil rights. Outside of New England it would have trouble being more than a junior coalition partner in state and national government, but it would be competitive in city councils and mayoral elections in many parts of the country.
Pro-government conservatives would span a large cross section of society. Their conservatism would be less a desire to go backward, but a comfort with most of the social progress of the sixties and little desire to go further. There would be, however, a strong faction that is wary of the advances of the sixties. Here we would find a fair number of urban blacks, southern whites, Catholics, some nativists, some evangelicals, small farmers, unions, and other working class groups. Public spending would be their main economic platform and on the social front they would guard all current legal protections of equality, but not push for any significant further advances. This party would be a powerful force in most cities and states with a large number of representatives in Congress.
Pro-business liberals would also be a broad, national party. Many moderate Republicans and DLC types would find themselves in this party, with a following among the black middle class, the "libertarian Democrat" identified by Kos, suburbanites, many small business owners, and other middle to upper class people who are tolerant on social issues yet unsupportive of higher taxes. Their biggest economic concern would be income tax rates. While in harmony with the pro-government liberals on social ideals, this party would not entrust government with as much power to bring the more radical change the leftist desire and therefore would embrace a less ambitious agenda of social justice. In the traditionally "red" states this party would be essentially the only champion of advancing civil rights from their current status. They would also be a potent force in these states with control of many gubernatorial offices and state legislatures and the main competitor with the pro-government conservatives for control of the national agenda.
Pro-business conservatives would come from the right wing of the Republican Party, many nativists, fascists, many evangelicals, property-rights activists, agribusiness, and many other big business interests. This party would advocate deregulation and social regression. They would essentially seek a return to pre-Progressive Era, McKinley administration America (ever hear Rove talk about his political hero?). Their base would be drawn from the Southern, Plains, and Rockies states. Outside of this area they would have little chance of gaining state power or significant federal representation (some seats in the Great Lakes, perhaps the northern NH seat, and a variety of seats off the coast in West Coast states), yet the size of their party would be larger than the pro-government liberals.
So what does this hypothetical reality-based fantasy situation mean for our real reality-based situation? I see four broad foci of political beliefs in this country around the groups I have just identified. I think they in fact exist right now and if history could be wiped clean and the American political landscape were to be renewed tomorrow based on current conditions this is what it would look like. However, we have a two party system that will remain intact for the foreseeable future. Using my formulation the DLC strategy is a viable one. Out of the four notional parties, the pro-business liberals can most easily partner with the other three groups, meaning pro-government liberals would have to work with a more moderate faction in order to gain access to power. Unfortunately we know how easily the DLC rolls over when challenged by the right and is not the answer we are looking for.
We in the real Democratic Party need to recognize the fact that if we are to be the "party of the people" that many of the people are not as liberal as we are. Ever since the 92 victory we have been courting the business liberals with some success, but for the last thirty years we have been losing the pro-government conservatives and I am of the mind that the battle between business and government is more important than the push for social progress at this time. The Republicans have been making gains, first with Reagan simply reaching out to them in the eighties on social issues, but now with Bush creating the idea of a big government conservative. Whether Bush will ultimately be successful in persuading more pro-government conservatives to join the Republican Party remains to be seen. In the mean time we need to make sure they don't have reason to defect.