It looks like we're going to have a hell of a U.S. Senate race in Virginia this year. According to
a new Zogby poll,
George Allen leads Jim Webb by just 5.3 percentage points, 48.8%-43.5%. That's great news for Webb, and horrible news for Allen, for at least 3 big reasons.
First, any time an incumbent falls uner 50%, it's bad news. Allen is now 1.2 percentage points below that threshold.
Second, this poll comes after George Allen just finished a significant round of TV and radio advertising. Doesn't look like THAT did much good.
Finally, Webb's coming off a bruising primary, with the Democratic Party just starting to come back together again for the general election race against Allen. Despite that, despite running no TV advertising, and despite all the free airtime Allen received on Hardball and other Republican- and incumbent-friendly shows, Webb is within 5.3 percentage points of Allen. Oh, and Webb is gaining fast - look at the graph above!
In other words, as we've been saying for months now, "Jim Webb is George Allen's Worst Nightmare." So let's all serenade Georgie Boy, Dick Wad(hams), and Scott "Hitler Ads" Howell: "nyah nyah nyah nyah, George Allen, good bye!" :)
P.S. Hat tip to James Martin for first pointing out that this poll was up. I've been checking regularly for days now, since I heard this was coming, but James is quicker than I am; he also stays up a lot later, apparently! :)
[UPDATE: According to the Washington Post, "Northern Virginia Republicans are... concerned about usually safe seats such as those of Fairfax Reps. Thomas M. Davis III and Frank R. Wolf and U.S. Sen. George Allen," as a result of "President Bush's unpopularity...the split among Republicans in Congress and the Virginia statehouse." Aside from Allen, Davis, and Wolf, should we start singing the "nyah nyah nyah" song to "James K. 'Jay' O'Brien Jr. and Ken Cuccinelli, conservative state senators from western Fairfax who might be vulnerable in elections next year?" Ha.]
[UPDATE #2: Last June, Rasmussen had Jerry Kilgore (R) ahead of Tim Kaine (D, now Governor of Virginia) by 6 points, while SurveyUSA had it as a 10-point Kilgore lead. Jim Webb is doing better than Tim Kaine against Jerry Kilgore at the same point in their races, except that Webb is facing a supposedly popular incumbent (unlike the Kilgore-Kaine race).]