According to a study published online by the British medical journal, the Lancet, a study conducted by Iraqi physicians and overseen by epidemiologists from Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health, there has been an excess death toll of Iraqi civilians of 655,000 people.
By Nathan Jaco
*Veteran, Operation Iraqi Freedom, US Army
*Sophomore, Public Administration
According to a study published online by the British medical journal, the Lancet, a study conducted by Iraqi physicians and overseen by epidemiologists from Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health, there has been an excess death toll of Iraqi civilians of 655,000 people.
This excess death toll is based on calculations of excess death-rate as a result of US involvement in Iraq, based on the results of a scientific survey using cross-sectional cluster sampling of the Iraqi population.
Cluster sampling identifies units of analysis in a sample as residents of particular areas, typically housing units, rather than simply as individuals, who may relocate. This is done to stabilize the sampling procedure.
"50 clusters were randomly selected from 16 Governorates, with every cluster consisting of 40 households. Information on deaths from these households was gathered."
"Three misattributed clusters were excluded from the final analysis; data from 1849 households that contained 12 801 individuals in 47 clusters was gathered. 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation period. Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5·5 per 1000 people per year (95% CI 4·3-7·1), compared with 13·3 per 1000 people per year (10·9-16·1) in the 40 months post-invasion. We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654 965 (392 979-942 636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601 027 (426 369-793 663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire."
The subgroup studied by the sample is Iraqi civilians, 87% of the sample population were asked to provide death certificates and 90% of that population were able so to do. This is a very representative sample of the original sample sample population, and a .9 confidence level of the intended group of those asked to present death certificates.
Other scholars have asserted that this is a representative sample and neither the Deparment of Defense nor the White House have, at present, contested the generalizability of the sample.
The most concerning estimate is that 601,000 of these are deaths resulting from violence. This is a severe indictment of the Bush administration and the Defense Department's ability to handle the situation on the ground in Iraq.
"Study Claims Iraq's 'Excess' Death Toll Has Reached 655,000" Washington Post, October 11, 2006
"Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey" The Lancet, October 12, 2006