CROSS-POSTED AT KECK FOR ASSEMBLY
As many have already read, rural America seems to breaking for the Democratic Party, and the stars are aligning in ways that should make many Upstate New York Republican incumbents very nervous. From the Center for Rural Strategies:
The poll of rural voters in 41 contested congressional districts found that likely voters preferred Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives by a margin of 13 points, 52 percent to 39 percent. In mid-September, the same population of voters was evenly split between the two parties at 45 percent each.
More below...
Included in this poll was both NY-20 and NY-24.
NY-20 overlaps with the 107th Assembly district in Delaware County, and
NY-24 overlaps with the 107th Assembly district in both Broome and Chenango Counties. Only eight towns in my district where not included in this poll, which shows the Republicans loosing their rural strongholds.
Add to this poll today's article from the New York Times, and you get even more bad news for the GOP:
If the Democrats take control of a majority of the legislatures, which polls indicate could happen, women could also attain leadership positions in greater numbers, since Democratic women in state capitals outnumber Republican women by nearly two to one. The next generation of national political leaders, by tradition, is nurtured in the state legislatures.
Even Alan Chartock agrees that races for the NYS Legislature, which in a different political environment would not be competitive,
today are:
So what is going to happen? Congressional seats like those of Tom Reynolds in Western New York will go Democratic, as will the open seat in Utica, We'll see that all over the country. The United States House and maybe the Senate will go Democratic. The New York state Senate may hold on but it too will surely lose some seats and the Democrats will at least come within whispering distance of taking over. Eliot Spitzer, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo and even poor Alan Hevesi will be swept into office. Democrats who in the past would have had no chance will win Assembly seats.
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