Here's an invitation to do a little soul-searching.
Everyone here will be ecstatic if we win the Senate. What if we don't?
Suppose we get 50 seats. I myself will be pretty happy: We'll be in a much better position to block truly awful judges and laws, and we'll be well-positioned to take over in 2008 (when there are nearly twice as many R seats to defend as D).
Even if we get only 49, we'll be in hugely better shape, and we should consider it a victory.
If we get 48 seats we're halfway to takeover, and in distinctly better position, but I myself will be disappointed that we didn't do better.
Now here's the thing: I've concluded that I'll be a little more unhappy at 48 than I'll be happy at 49. This makes my personal expectation break-even point (PEBEP) about 48 3/4.
It's no less nerdly if you click to read the rest.
I've been trying to talk myself into a PEBEP of 48 or less, but it won't work; I know I'll be unhappy at 48. If I were just as unhappy at 48 as I'd be happy at 49, I could get down to 48 1/2, but I can't seem to do even that. Actually, I'm afraid my real, secret PEBEP is a little over 49.
Don't spend too much time on this. There are phone calls to make, and canvassing to do, and generally votes to get out. But it's a little entertaining to think about and nail down where your own expectations lie. Anyone deluded enough to have PEBEP over 50?
By the way, no such fancy-free arithmetic applies to the House. I'm happy if we take it by any margin, and if we don't take it I'm going to stick my head in the oven.