It would appear, statistical evidence bears out the Summer 2006 voter mailing in Ohio did lead to reduction of active Voters on the Voter Rolls by 9-10%. It is still unclear how many of those were in error, or if a political slant (or caging) existed within this large sample. It will be curious to understand in detail, and this may be impacting the two remaining undecided house seats in Ohio, OH-02 and OH-18.
Analysis Below.
First there is the status of the two US House Races currently undecided.
OH-02: GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt has declared victory, but Dem Victoria Wulsin is waiting for all provisional ballots to be counted before conceding. Schmidt had a 2,323-vote lead at close of polls but over 16,000 provisional ballots were cast and are being validated.
Currently Ohio BOE has posted:
U.S. House - District 2 - Ohio 717 of 717 Precincts Reporting
Schmidt , Jean (i) GOP 115,817 50.63
Wulsin , Victoria Dem 112,952 49.37
OH-15: GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce has declared victory, but Dem Mary Jo Kilroy will not concede. Pryce has a lead of 3,536 votes at close of polls but over 19,000 provisional ballots were cast.
The full posted Ohio Returns can be found here:
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/...
Now lets look at the voter numbers:
Total Voters on the Voter Rolls are now declared at 7,851,499. That is apx an 4% reduction in the listed Voter Roll for the 2005 election of 8,143,023, but in addition to absolute reduction, some number of "suspended" or "watch listed" voters seem to exist in a limbo-state where they are counted on the Voter Rolls but are only able to vote provisionally.
2006 Voter Turnout was 53% averaged across the state. A total of 4,177,498 votes were cast.
The state has not posted the number of Provisional Ballots Cast. but it has included a single total of Provisional/Absentee Ballots of - 211,656. This number however appears to be the total number that were NOT yet counted.
We do have the ratio of Absentee vs. Provisionals Ballots from local reporting in some counties.
From the Local Athens Newspaper we have the following report focussed on one local Ohio House Race:
"There are about 3,000 ballots that haven't been counted yet," said Phillips. "I believe that all of the ballots should be recounted...[in addition] an estimated 1,100-1,200 absentee ballots were inadvertently "zeroed out" by an Election Systems & Software technician Wednesday morning were those cast by Phillips and members of her campaign staff...Of the 2,168 provisional ballots yet to be counted from the 92nd District, 1,571 are from Athens County, she said. Provisional ballots are normally counted days after the general election - Meigs and Morgan counties are scheduled to count their 269 provisional ballots by Nov. 17, while Athens County's provisional tally is expected by Nov. 20.
In this news account there are 1,571 Provisional ballots for Athens County. According to State of Ohio BOE there are 1,763 Provisional and Absentee Ballots for Athens County.
The total Voters on the Voter Rolls in Athens County 2006: 42,573.
The total Voters on the Voter Rolls in Athens County 2005: 46,998.
Total Voter roll reduction Athens County: 4,425 Voters. Apx 10%
Athens total votes cast in 2006: 17,525
Total Provisional Ballots Cast: 1,571 Apx. 10%.
It seems the 17,525 total votes includes Early Votes, Absentee Ballots that arrived before election day and were counted on election day, and the Votes from election day. The outstanding votes seem to be Absentee Ballots arriving after election day and provisional ballots.
If the make-up of those ballots is an exact match of the voting population it will debunk the GOP bent of this "Voter Suspension".
If it turns out the Provisional Ballots break with a Democratic lean of as little at 20% and a very different prospect emerges. If there was a political overtone to the supensions, those provisional ballots mean OH-02 an OH-18 are very much in play.