Questions about what Gordon Brown's policy is going to be once he takes over the prime ministership this month are becoming clearer. From the Times Online we learn today that British commanders have drawn up plans to remove nearly all British troops from Iraq by the end of the year.
"It won’t happen unless ministers say it is okay but in the circumstances it is impossible to see politicians going against the advice of two of the most experienced operational officers in the British Army," one senior source said. Both Shaw and Lamb are former SAS officers and have been in charge of special forces during the war on terror.
I know that suggestions of this had been going on for some time, but all of this seems to make the pull-out all the more likely.
But in a freedom of information request released 10 days ago, the MoD said the Iraqi 10th Division, which is taking over from British troops in four provinces, has five brigades. Three of those brigades have already taken over in Dhi Qar, Maysan and Muthanna provinces. The remaining two are responsible for Basra and should have it under their control by the end of the year.
Withdrawal from Iraq would be far from easy. A large number of armoured vehicles would have to be moved to the port of Um Qasr or Kuwait. Other equipment might have to be destroyed or handed to the Iraqi army.
"There are several contingency plans about exactly how British troops will get out," one defence source said. "Whatever way we use it will be ugly."