The diary from a letter written by an LSO officer on a carrier in the Persian Gulf has raised the anticipation that the US is about to launch an attack on Iran. I've served on a carrier during Vietnam, and I stood behind the LSO on the flight deck at night during combat operations. They earn their money. During my time of service only Navy pilots served in that position, but things change.
Our ship was in Haiphong harbor in Christmas of 1972. The attack on Iran sounds like it might be that kind of operation. In late 1972 the peace talks had stalled and then President Nixon decided to use the stick instead of the carrot. He released the dogs of war one last time. It was hell on earth by most accounts.
Here's the official State Department description of that event.
Diplomacy had failed and a greatly frustrated Nixon concluded that only force could persuade Hanoi that negotiating with the United States was preferable to continuing the war. The President ordered his military commanders to mine Haiphong Harbor and to initiate a sustained air campaign in the Hanoi-Haiphong region. Beginning on December 18 and continuing for 11 days, American bombing attacked all significant military targets in the region. Even though the targets were military, the aim was psychological—to shock the North Vietnamese back to the negotiations in a frame of mind to end the war. On December 26, the North Vietnamese signaled their willingness to be agreeable and to meet in early January. After 3 more days of bombing, Nixon ended the air campaign. Nixon also believed that the bombing would remind the South Vietnamese that American air power was the most powerful weapon against the North Vietnamese, and that its continued availability was contingent upon South Vietnamese support of the agreement.
Nixon's plan worked and in early January 1973, the Americans and North Vietnamese ironed out the last details of the settlement. All parties to the conflict, including South Vietnam, signed the final agreement in Paris on January 27. As it turned out, only America honored the cease-fire. Furthermore, the National Council of National Reconciliation and Concord was stillborn. The North wanted to destroy South Vietnam while the South wanted to defeat the Northern forces. The inevitable solution, therefore, was to fight until one side won. Military facts on the ground, not words on paper, would determine South Vietnam's future. Additionally, within 24 hours of the cease-fire coming into effect, the return of the almost 600 American prisoners began, as did the redeployment home of the remaining American and South Korean troops in South Vietnam. The January accords, titled the "Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace in Vietnam," neither ended the war (except for the United States) nor restored the peace. A little over 2 years later, 30 North Vietnamese divisions conquered the South and restored peace in Vietnam. The American commitment to defend South Vietnam, described as unequivocal by Nixon and Kissinger, had been vitiated by the Watergate scandal and Nixon's subsequent resignation. By that time, the Paris Accords seemed memorable only as the vehicle on which the United States rode out of Southeast Asia.
The Haiphong operation was a coordinated air raid on North Vietnam. The main attack force was B-52's from Guam. The Navy flew support, and hit as many targets as they could. North Vietnam's primary air defense weapon was the Soviet made SAM. For a long time the Soviets shipped them directly into Haiphong harbor, and we did nothing to stop them. On a one for one ratio the American fighter pilots were in little or no danger from the SAM missiles. The B-52's had state of the art ECM, but they were still vulnerable. At this point in time there are enough similarities between what was happening then and what is happening now, to draw some inferences about what this attack means, how it would be carried out, and what the attack is meant to accomplish.
The Haiphong attack was largely symbolic. North Vietnam was effectively a No-Fly Zone, except US air power never cleared out the air defense facilities, and in the raid on Haiphong the enemy air defenses took a heavy toll on US aircraft. Iran's defenses are more varied, including some state of the art Sunburst Missiles, supplied by the Soviets. To keep the Cold War angle going here. see the August 25 Russian challenge of British Air Space, which required the RAF to scramble their jets. The new Cold War is meant to drive Europe toward the right, and destroy the established Liberal European leadership, which opposed the unilateral Bush policies in the Middle East. With the election of Sarkozy that strategy appears to be paying off. Politics is a shell game, the left hand distracts you from what the right hand is doing.
Bush will never be impeached over Iraq, if history is any indication. The attack on Iran depends greatly on how much of this is new Cold War bluster, and how much of this is Bush manifest destiny; Texas in the Middle East. As much as Bush likes to draw things in black and white, he also likes to build multifacted solutions. They taught him that in Harvard Business School, where he was considered a good poker player. Iraq was supposed to do a lot of things.
To remind everyone of what happened after the raid on Haiphong, by the following March the aircraft carriers ceased military action. We all walked up on the flight deck and spelled out the words, Peace With Honor, and we turned around and went home, two months early, and our ship never returned. The war continued until 1975, when the last helicopter flew off the embassy roof at Saigon. I watched it on television at home. I was a civilian by then.
The handover wasn't negotiated publically, but in order for the Americans to leave, with NVA tanks only a few miles behind them, required some kind of agreement. Getting out of Iraq is no less difficult.
War with Iran can take any of a number of directions, a one time symbolic attack, with a possible longer term committment; a new No-Fly Zone could be established, but that may prove too costly to continue, without some sort of UN backing.
The Neo-Conization of Europe isn't far enough along.
Unfortunately the President's fate is tied to the economy, which has the potential to turn every city into New Orleans. When he is unable to effectively govern, he will resign. That day is not far off. Bush hopes his legacy will continue, because any of the top three front runners for President, would probably sign on for an expanded No-Fly Zone over the Persian Gulf once Bush has launched the attack, and taken the political heat. The Republicans once more are able to move the center of the political spectrum, from a minority position.
My guess is A) War with Iran will happen
B) It will probably be short and sweet, and the reason given will be to protect our troops. No ground troops will be needed.
C) The Iranians will not overreact
D) The Democrats in Congress will bluster, and then roll over, because they don't want to see the party split on this issue going into the elections, which is exactly what will happen.
E) Clinton and Obama will be compromised, seen as too belligerent by their own party. The Republican candidates will jump up and down and yell for more bombs, more blood, and that will draw them up to even with the peaceniks that survive the rancorous split among the Democrats, and the Republicans will count it as a political victory, even though they lose the election, they manage to move the political center from a minority position in both houses, and being out of the White House..
Unless of course the Democrats STOP BUSH NOW
but don't hold your breath