Former Senator Fred Thompson has a reputation, rightly or wrongly, as being lazy. Some even went so far to say it was part of the reason he has waited to jump into the fray on the GOP side of the Presidential primary battles. But, Thompson seems to be getting in at just the right time for obvious reasons. The current contenders have been burning through money for months and beating each other up with really no clear "inevitable" candidate. And, post Labor Day is the more traditional time to launch a campaign in the year before a Presidential election. Despite numerous debates and speeches a lot of Americans haven't tuned in yet. So, the conditions for someone with high name ID to jump in "this late" are perfect for Thompson. While Thompson has a lot to prove, he is unquestionably in as good a position as any other GOP candidate to win the nomination, despite his "late entry." Although the field is deeper on the Democratic side, with 3-4 current candidates that can with the nomination and the general elecection, there is a striking similarity of conditions.
(more...)
There has been jousting, debating and stumping among the Democratic party potential nominees. Money has been spent (though a few still have plenty) and jabs have been thrown. But, despite the traditional media's focus on generic name ID driven polls there is no "inevitable" candidate on the Democratic side either. Clinton does not have commanding leads (if at all) in key primary states and Obama and Edwards who both have shown signs of greatness and might be able to "put it all together", still seem to be missing "something" from being the "total package." Thus, conditions are still ripe for a high name ID candidate with the right experience to lead the nation to jump in.
No one on the Democratic side (who is not in the race and still eligible to be President) has a higher name ID right now than Al Gore. And, more importantly, unlike Thompson, Gore has an army (that would only explode if he announced) of volunteers ready to go for both fundraising and the important ground work. So really the conditions are even more favorable for a late Gore entry than a Thompson announcement. Gore is still riding an impressive wave of popularity. We've seen diaries on the "Gore Brand" and his Presidential level of leadership during Katrina as a reminder of the 800 pound gorilla that is the potential Gore campaign. Importantly, Gore is not only respected at home, he is also respected abroad.
While it is true the Gore campaign of 2000 was weakly run, I believe Gore has learned many lessons since then. His successful campaign-style promotion for An Inconvenient Truth is a prime example. Plus, I believe Gore would not surround himself with the same no-clue-beltway-crew he did last time. No, I don't think we'd see the focus-grouped-play-it-safe candidate that in many ways "lost" the election in 2000, I think if he runs we'd see him really go for it as himself as I believe he understands that he is uniquely positioned to make the case for what is at stake and tie it all together on energy, security, foreign policy and all the important domestic issues we face. There is obviously one huge question...
Will Al give the Democrats an October (or fall) surprise? Obviously, only he can know for sure. But, just as obvious, the door remains open - with many on the other side waiting to welcome him - if he wants to walk through it.
P.S. Note to Al (and the rest of the field really)- there is a fairly high name ID, deeply experienced VP candidate just waiting for you that would easily help seal the deal.
UPDATE: Hat Tip to JekyllnHyde for pointing out this article:
http://www.tcpalm.com/...
U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney, D-Palm Beach Gardens, met with our editorial board Wednesday for a freewheeling question-and-answer session. Among the congressman's comments:
He has met individually with most of the 2008 Democratic candidates for the presidential nomination, but hasn't determined who he will endorse. Mahoney said there is "a very good chance" that former vice president Al Gore will make a bid. If Gore does, he will be "very formidable" because Gore has been "right" on his predictions about issues such as Iraq and global warming, Mahoney said.