A Strategic Vision poll released early this morning shows Hillary Clinton leading in Iowa with 24% of likely voters in the caucuses vs. 22% for Edwards, 21% for Obama, and 13% for Richardson. Undecideds are 14%.
(600 likely Democratic caucus goers, aged 18+, and conducted September 21-23, 2007)
What this means is that Hillary Clinton has now led in the last three Iowa polls by three different organizations, Strategic Visions, the Los Angeles Times, and American Research Group. By most definitions, it is appropriate to say that Clinton leads now in Iowa. That might change, but Edwards does not lead any longer.
(By the way - I am undecided, formerly leaning Edwards.)
Now, I can hear you all the way out to Wyoming. "Strategic Vision is a Rethuglican polling organization!!!" This may be so. Still, if one compares only Strategic Vision polls over the course of the summer, you will notice that Hillary Clinton's numbers have risen slowly, while John Edwards have declined. Hillary Clinton has led American Research Group polls all summer - by margins larger than other polls. Even though Clinton's numbers in the latest ARG poll dipped slightly, Edwards' dropped more over the course of the summer.
I know, it ain't over until the substantial woman in the Wagnerian costume sings. But I can hear her already warming up in the green room. Clinton has led every national poll all year. Her numbers have edged up all summer from the mid thirties to the low forties. Obama has remained mired in the mid twenties - Edwards in the teens. Of course, national numbers mean nothing since Democratic caucuses and primaries take place on a state by state basis. But a quick look at a map of the states shows that Clinton has these wrapped up, too. With this third poll in Iowa giving Clinton a small lead, she leads - most often by huge margins - in every state with multiple polls except one - Illinois.
Hillary Clinton doesn't need to win Iowa - only come close. Because of the front-loading of the primaries, a succession of wins elsewhere will quickly overshadow the Iowa results. I know caucus states are harder to poll than primary ones. New Hampshire is a primary state - and Clinton leads by a two-to-one margin over Obama and Edwards. Her lead has been growing since late summer. Same goes for South Carolina. A white woman from up nawth has a big lead over an African American and a Southerner from the neighboring state.
It's not 2004. Dean only had a small lead over his rivals and only reached the 20% range compared to Clinton's current 40%. Dean also didn't have near the money, near the name recognition - for good and ill, and a Big Bill in the background. Hillary Clinton has many faults - her recent vote on the Lieberman-Kyl Bill among them - but we dismiss her candidacy at our risk. She has run an error-free campaign. If nothing else, after two terms of Bushco incompetence, you have to say that she has her shit together - big time.