Could our worst fears come true? When that small percentage of Iowans turn out next week, will they select the most beatable Democratic candidate? The Democrats look poised to win it all next year, but something very different may be happening.
John McCain, left for dead on several occasions, is back. The Republicans are disgusting and extreme, but they aren't stupid. Most realize that McCain is their ONLY shot at the White House. A Guliani nomination would result in a serious third party anti-abortion candidate who would take 5%-10% of otherwise Republican votes. Huckabee would be done in by his own crazy past (and present) statements. And a large portion of the country simply will not vote for a Mormon (sorry Mitt). It's McCain or no one for the GOP. More on the problem and possible solutions below the fold.
Problem A: Is Hillary Clinton the Most Electable?
For Democrats, that most beatable of the big 3 candidates may be Hillary Clinton.
Polls show that Hillary Clinton is NOT the Answer.
According to John Zogby's latest polls, Obama does BETTER against potential GOP general election candidates than does Hillary. Go to
http://www.zogby.com/... for more information.
In particular, Obama BEATS McCain 47%-43%, While Hillary Clinton LOSES 49%-42%.
While it's early for match-up data, other evidence shows that Hillary Clinton is simply the weakest of the big three.
According to Rasmussen polling, Hillary Clinton (and Republican Mitt Romney) tie for the HIGHEST LEVEL of CORE OPPOSITION. 47% of voters say they will vote AGAINST Hillary regardless of which Republican is on the ballot. McCain has the LOWEST level of core opposition (33%) and Obama is the SECOND LOWEST (36%). For more on this poll, go to http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Simply put, Hillary will bring out voters to vote AGAINST her, while failing to generate the positive excitement that an Obama campaign would bring.
Finally, a Hillary nomination will cost at least two of my family/friends who might otherwise vote Democratic.
--One friend, a somewhat conservative Republican has tired of the Bush presidency. He is open to voting for Obama (and would have supported Gore/Obama) but will Never vote for Hillary.
--Another, an independent, supported Kerry in 2004. She is a strong Obama backer, but simply would not vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination.
Problem B: John McCain Can Win
Contrasting Hillary Clinton and John McCain would be dangerous to the Democratic party in 2008. While McCain is actually a conservative Republican, the press loves him! They will portray him as a "maverick" and an "independent" and a lot of independents do like him. In a Clinton-McCain match-up, McCain is likely to take independent votes and cruise to victory.
The Solution: A United Post-Iowa Anti-Hillary Clinton Front
The best way to insure a Democratic president is to nominate EITHER Barack Obama or John Edwards. While I am an Obama supporter, I would be happy to see John Edwards as our nominee. Here is what we need to do, whoever wins Iowa (but ESPECIALLY if Clinton gains a narrow win).
Obama and Edwards should meet immediately and decide which of them is the STRONGEST candidate. Then, the other should drop out and endorse the stronger candidate. A united front post Iowa is the ONLY way to stop Hillary and increase the chances of the Democrats defeating John McCain, who is looking more and more like the Republican nominee.
We CAN defeat John McCain if we make sure the Most Electable Democrat gets the nomination! And people, that's NOT Hillary Clinton!