History is so damned predictable (after the fact).
First time writing a diary here, so rather than make Yet Another Damned Candidate Diary (YADCD, pronounced YAD-cad), I thought I'd try to do some speculating on the fallout of the Iowa caucuses. Nobody really knows how its going to go down, but there's only so many possible outcomes, (hint: one of them will win), that it isn't in the realm of fantasy to analyze what will become the ever-so-obvious outcome of the 2008 Iowa caucus.
Full disclosure: I'm passively supporting the Edwards campaign. Passive, as in, "I'm not willing to bet money on that there horse just yet". I'm saving my donations for the general election. And secondly, I have no experience in regards to interpreting Iowa's effects; I didn't follow the 2004 primaries very closely (kinda too young), and I didn't know about follow the 2000 primaries (definitely too young).
But there's only so many scenarios that could occur January 3rd, and the media response to each is fairly predictable. Let's start with Clinton:
Hillary Clinton wins by a landslide (40+ %)
The Inevitability meme comes roaring back, with cushy leather seats and 24 inch gold-plated rims. Hillary is set to wrap up the nomination, having conquered her weakest battleground. Edwards is toast, the establishment pats itself on the back, and half of the nation's Republicans are hospitalized for trauma-induced brain aneurysms (the other half breathe sighs of relief, anticipating an easy general election, with plenty of old Clinton dirt to recycle. They wiiiish...).
Barring a first place showing by Obama in New Hampshire, nothing can top "the ol' gal". February 5 is meaningless (like anyone expected otherwise).
Two months ago, this looked reasonably likely. Not today, when all three candidates are exceptionally, amazingly, and consistently neck-to-neck-to-neck, and two of them are running as the "Anti-Hillary".
Actually, scratch that.
Obama is running as the Anti-Hillary. Edwards is running as the Anti-Establishment. Hillary is running as the Pro-Establishment (-Experience, if you prefer), Pro-Hillary (well, duh) candidate.
This sets up an interesting duality in the non-Hillary camps. Combined under one candidate, they would easily sweep Clinton off the board. But the friendly
sociable
tolerant
court-mandated-restraining-order rivalry between the Obama and Edwards supporters has shown no signs of fading. Either side is hoping the other will buckle and bleed supporters to their man, but with the odd caucus system, they'd have to do so quickly, or risk allowing the relatively stable Clinton block to seize the night.
Hillary Clinton scrapes out a close win (-5% difference between 1st and 2nd place)
I'd consider this a fairly likely outcome. Not the most likely, but I wouldn't do a spit-take with my morning coffee and newspaper. Obama would almost certainly take second place, and he's got the support and money needed to bounce back in New Hampshire. Edwards, again, is toast, but at least the toaster didn't burn down the curtains this time.
Moving on...
Obama by a landslide
Obama successfully gathers the non-Hillary vote under himself. He can do this only by grabbing nervous Edwards supporters who don't want to "spoil" the primary a la Nader-Gore-Florida, or by shaving off previously committed-Hillary votes. In my opinion, Edwards supporters, as a whole, are a much more volatile group than the Hillary camp. The Hill-Bill-ies like their candidate, and they won't drop her for anything short of gunpoint. She's no longer "inevitable", but what she has left, her base, appears to be rock-solid. Of course, such an assertion remains to be proven, the "Post-Post Caucus Analysis" thread could show me grossly wrong.
Obama by a sliver
Again, Obama pulls it off by leeching off (sorry) consolidating the Edwards base. Hillary takes a close second. The media types giggle maniacally to themselves and dust off all their old "Comeback Kid" footage and memes (gag). Whether New Hampshire would go to Obama or Clinton is anybody's guess.
Oh, yeah, and Edwards is toast, but if you scrape off the burnt parts, its still edible.
Edwards by a landslide
Ain't gonna happen.
Let's go back to what I said earlier about the non-Hillary duality. Obama supporters like Obama, and dislike Clinton, and aren't especially thrilled by Edwards (to put it civilly). Edwards supporters like Edwards and don't like Clinton, and aren't especially thrilled by Obama. But it is not mirror symmetry when you look at second choices. Edwards supporters realize they are outliers, and are willing to jump to Obama if they feel it becomes necessary. The Obama camp does not feel they are on shaky ground.
The entire Edwards campaign hinges on one gamble; two dice rolls. The first roll: When the third tier candidates get booted out after the first round, he needs to grab all of their supporters. ALL OF THEM. He needs Every. Single. Damned. One. of them just to make the ante for the next roll.
Two: Obama supporters see a rush of movement to Edwards. They panic. Edwards surrogates play up the appearance of momentum as much as they can. If the first-time caucus goers that Obama has been targeting get the willies,
-and run to Edwards,
-and the Obama oldtimers fail to rally,
-and Hillary doesn't run away with the nomination in the meantime,
-then Edwards might shave a few crucial percentage points from Obama and win the night. I cannot see Obama possibly walking away from Iowa with anything less than 25%, but a shift of just 5% from Obama to Edwards could be the lifeblood that Edwards needs.
Remember, Edwards needs to be a phenomenon to win, Obama needs to be a new face to win, Clinton just needs to show up to win.
Edwards by a sliver
As said above, this is the best-case scenario for the Edwards campaign. Clinton and Obama are just hair-breadths away, but a win is a win.
Or is it?
The media certainly isn't going to be nice to Edwards. They haven't been nice to him up until now. And seeing their "Inevitable" and "New Face" paradigms go burning to the ground in a single night... well, that's just bad for business. Expect dirty, dirty reporting. But Obama and Clinton supporters can take heart. They're still in the race; after all, a couple thousand corn farmers don't really matter in the long run. Or rather, that's going to be the over-arching message from the media blitz:
"Iowa doesn't matter!"
Forget about all that time and money and stumping they spent prior to January 3rd, Clinton and Obama will use the media's message. They will have to use this message. I can see the press releases now: "To hell with the corn farmers, look at my NATIONAL poll numbers!"
But the hardest challenge facing any of the candidates will still be with Edwards. He would still need to prove himself by taking first in New Hampshire. His campaign would still be the smallest, the poorest, and the most isolated from the establishment and the media. He would need to sweep New Hampshire to be able to, ahem, "shut up" the naysayers. A slim win in New Hampshire could actually be disastrous for him, especially if the conventional wisdom has decided Iowa and New Hampshire don't matter. Obama and Hillary would still have loads of cash to spend, and Hillary (currently) still has the national numbers.
Super Tuesday would matter.
(Which would be pretty freaking cool, actually. I've got my fingers crossed for this one. Can you imagine if the nomination actually came down to a 20 state referendum in February? That would be soooo awesome, *swoon*)
And then let's say Edwards wins all of these consecutive "coin tosses" (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, possibly Nevada, etc, etc). He finally (finally) becomes the presumptive nominee. CNN finally has to bite the bullet and like, show his picture on TV once in a while, the 527s magically become "good guys" again, and the entire entrenched corporate establishment of the country collectively shit themselves.
Then they regroup, and begin throwing said shit at Edwards. (Sorry for the visuals, but do you really think I'm exaggerating?)
So that's my analysis of the potential outcomes. Clinton has a good chance going in. Obama has a good chance going in, better if Edwards supporters get antsy. Edwards needs the appearance of momentum, the appearance of momentum, and the appearance of momentum, until he finally actually does have momentum; before he could possibly clinch it. But I'm rooting for him anyways.