Tom Cruise as Joel Goodsen:
The dream is always the same. Instead of going home, I go to the neighbors'. I ring, but nobody answers. The door is open, so I go inside. I'm looking around for the people, but nobody seems to be there. And then I hear the shower running, so I go upstairs to see what's what. Then I see her; this... girl, this incredible girl. I mean, what she's doing there I don't know, because she doesn't live there... but it's a dream, so I go with it. "Who's there?" she says. "Joel," I say. "What are you doing here?" "I don't know what I'm doing here; what are you doing here?" "I'm taking a shower," she says. Then I give her: "You want me to go?" "No," she says; "I want you to wash my back." So now, I'm gettin' enthusiastic about this dream. So I go to her, but she's hard to find through all the steam and stuff; I keep losing her. Finally I get to the door... and I... find myself in a room full of kids taking their college boards. I'm over three hours late; I've got two minutes to take the whole test. I've... just made a terrible mistake. I'll never get to college. My life is ruined.
(IMDB)
How does this apply to Barack Obama's candidacy? More on the flip.
Barack Obama's candidacy is nothing short than amazing considering the strength of his Democratic opponents and political and social stereotypes he is overcoming. Iowa, a battleground state with anything but a demographic diverse population, bought into the message that the need for change is greater than the need for experience. Obama won more men, women, Democrats, Republicans, Independents, married men, and unmarried women. Issues (health care, Iraq, etc.) and income did not matter. But if history is any indication, its where Obama did not do well that's Risky Business.
First, Obama is a divisive among generations. According to CNN's entrance polls, Obama came in third with Clinton on top in both 45-64 and 65+ age cohorts. Although the under 30 age cohort made-up 22% of the vote in the Iowa Caucus this year, that's quite a jump from previous years (4-5 points). But is that unimaginable?
With only focusing on one state's colleges and university for a year, its no wonder why Obama did so well. His field staff obviously was terrific, along with his fundraising. But can Obama the Democratic nominee replicate this success nationwide? He can't just spend his time university to university from February 6th to November 4th. He has to go to community centers, churches, chambers of commerce, festivals, 4H fairs, etc. History tells us its the OLDER voter that's key to victory. Don't believe me? Ask John Kerry.
Second, Obama lost rural and self-identifying conservative voters. If Barack is genuine in his ability to bridge the divide in America, he needs to look to Western Iowa for reasons as to why his message of hope did not do well. Furthermore, as a Virginian who has lived or worked in Wise, VA, Loudoun County, Arlington, Richmond, and Newport News, Barack needs to do substantially better in connecting with conservative and rural voters if he hopes to capture these voters. And with the 2010 Census adding more Congressional seats Southern states, the party's future rides on his success.
Finally, where's the beef? Barack Obama must be able to communicate concrete, tangible policy proposals to voters. Democrats only need to look to Jimmy Carter for a reflection of a failed Presidency built on hope. Conservatives will only embrace a change candidate if they know where he stands. This was why Kerry could never win a conservative voter; flip-flopping or vagueness killed his candidacy.
Risky Business is not just a movie. Barack Obama's candidacy revolves on his ability to bring the same new and younger voters to the ballot box in November, adding substance to his positions, and attracting rural, conservative voters on both sides of the aisle. If he can do all of this, he will be this generation's RFK rewriting a new chapter in American politics. Otherwise, we may be looking at lankier Jimmy Carter with a funny middle name from Chicago.