Obama suggests that independents and moderate Republicans may vote for him but won't vote for Hillary Clinton.
And he's right.
A diary currently on the rec list claims that Obama said that those backing him won't vote for Hillary. Here's how the diary opens:
Yesterday Barack Obama stated that while all Clinton voters would certainly vote for him, many of his voters would not vote for Clinton.
oh. really.
No, not really. You'd think the diarist could link to a quote. No such luck. But that's okay. I'll get it for her...
(more)
Obama's quote:
Obama suggested there were several areas in which he could do better than Clinton against the Republicans in the fall.
"I have no doubt that I can get the people who vote for Senator Clinton. ... It's not clear that Senator Clinton can get all the people I'm getting," he said.
Obama has discussed this on prior occasions. He has made the case that Clinton's steady and high negatives (the highest of any candidate from either party once Romney drops out) make her more vulnerable in the general, especially now that McCain is the likely nominee. The dislike of Clinton by Republicans and many independents is well-documented and persistent.
The suggestion by the diarist and others that Obama is hinting that his Democratic voters won't back Clinton is a stretch and is reminiscent of the attacks on Howard Dean and his supporters in 2004. Back then, those opposed to Dean derided Dean and his supporters in many of the same ways we now see Clinton backers deriding Obama and his supporters. Dean backers were described as "kids," "not real Democrats" and other derogatory and insulting terms.
Over and over, establishment Dems opposed to Dean suggested that if Dean failed to garner the nomination, he would run third party and take his supporters with him, ruining Dem chances in the general election.
Of course, none of that was true. Dean ended up as head of the DNC, implementing his 50 state strategy and trying to build the party from the ground up in ways that Terry McAuliffe and the Clinton machine had rejected in favor of focusing on a few swing states and corporate donations.
And Dean's backers, many of them schooled in the hand-to-hand combat of precinct walking and phone banking during Dean's campaign, went on to become some of the Kerry campaign's best workers.
So it ended up that the phony handwringing and insults thrown at Dean and his supporters were garbage.
As I have noted many times here during primary season, people will write and say things during the heat of a contested presidential primary that they do not mean. That is why I have pointed out that diary polls asking if Daily Kos participants will back Candidate X if Candidate X gets the nomination are worthless. With a hotly-contested race, emotions run high. No one wants to concede defeat. Especially on a political blog such as Daily Kos.
And I would recommend that Clinton backers hurling these bogus charges at Obama supporters here spend some time at MyDD or the blog of the execrable Taylor Marsh where they will find many Clinton supporters proclaiming loudly that they will NEVER vote for Obama.
I don't believe those folks, either.
Damn near every Democrat supporting Clinton OR Obama will back the Dem in the general election against McCain.
That's why what Obama said is correct. Like Clinton, he is more likely to capture nearly every Dem. But he is also more likely to capture many more independents and even moderate Republicans than Clinton due to her high, persistent negatives.
The truth is, folks, damn near all of you posting here will vote for the Dem over McCain, even if you don't believe it right now.
Update [2008-2-7 13:52:21 by Bob Johnson]:
Head-to-head poll numbers
A number of poster have questioned Obama's assertion that he is more likely to capture "swing" voters than Clinton. A few Hillary backers have suggested that she is likely to capture women independents, and, thus, she is more electable, or at least on a par with, Obama.
Let's take a look at the numbers from Real ClearPolitics:
According to their poll average, Obama leads McCain by 0.7% and Clinton trails McCain by 1.8%. keep in mind that that is the average of ALL polls.
A 2.5% swing in a tight election is huge.
Also, the last CNN poll highlighted on the RCP chart shows a five point gap between Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain. Obama beats McCain by eight, Hillary by three.
The implications to downticket races of a five point higher margin by the standard bearer are huge. An eight point win over McCain would likely mean many more House seats for Dems and maybe even an extra Senate seat or two.
So at least in terms of currently available empirical evidence (as all the Clinton backers discount these polls by shouting "New Hampshire!"), Obama is correct.