Earlier I wrote a diary that explored the worst case scenarios for OH and PA.
http://www.dailykos.com/...
What I mean by worst case here is that a reasonable worst case, I am not including possibilities like the implosion of the Obama campaign.
Flip over to the other side.
I make a couple assumptions in this diary:
1. Obama will get at least 75-80% of the black vote
2. Obama will get at least 15% in any district, he will not be not viable anywhere.
I am assuming as well that the final percentages will be about C-60 O-40, so about a 20% win for Clinton.
So here it goes, my worst case predictions by district:
Texas:
TX-1 C-3 O-1
TX-2 C-3 O-1
TX-3 C-3 O-1
TX-4 C-2 O-2
TX-5 C-2 O-2
TX-6 C-2 O-1
TX-7 C-2 O-1
TX-8 C-2 O-2
TX-9 C-2 O-1
TX-10 C-3 O-2
TX-11 C-2 O-2
TX-12 C-2 O-2
TX-13 C-2 O-5
TX-14 C-3 O-5
TX-15 C-2 O-2
TX-16 C-2 O-2
TX-17 C-3 O-2
TX-18 C-3 O-1
TX-19 C-3 O-1
TX-20 C-3 O-1
TX-21 C-3 O-1
TX-22 C-2 O-1
TX-23 C-3 O-3
TX-24 C-2 O-1
TX-25 C-4 O-2
TX-26 C-3 O-1
TX-27 C-2 O-1
TX-28 C-2 O-1
TX-29 C-2 O-1
TX-30 C-2 O-1
TX-31 C-2 O-0
At large: C-25 O-17
PLEO: C-15 O-10
Total for Texas: C-116 O-77 or +39 for Clinton
I used MattTX's excellent analysis of Texas as a baseline for this set of projections.
http://electioninspection.wordpress....
Adding this to the PA and OH results, it adds to +111 delegates for Clinton, which effectively wipes out Obama's pledged delegate lead.
Now if you don't want to wake up on April 23 seeing Hillary Clinton in the lead in pledged delegates, we better get to work now.