I woke up this morning full of gloom and doom, but in a sign of early Spring, the sky was getting light on my early drive into work and the Cascades were glowing out in the distance. Sure things seem bad today, like we'll pull defeat out of an easy victory, but there's still plenty of time. Here's what I would do going forward if I were advising either candidate.
Remember, this advice is worth exactly what it cost!
Barack Obama: I love you as a Presidential candidate. I caucused for you and I'm a delegate at the King County Convention for you. That doesn't mean that I'm blind to what flaws you have. The 3 AM ad didn't just work because Clinton raised a boogie man. They worked because you haven't addressed the one flaw of your run - people still think of you as inexperienced. Fortunately, you have a great chance to reverse things.
You have a month and a half to largely focus on PA. Win the state and it's over. Here's what I do for the next three weeks. It's time to pull a reverse Rove and turn your weakness into a strength.
People deride your experience? Well it's time to explain what exactly a community organizer and civil rights lawyer does. Talk about your experiences in those jobs. Explain what it taught you about how to deal with people's problems, especially those who have little and need the most help. If you want to draw contrasts to Clinton, you could point out how this puts you more in touch with the concerns of average people than being in the bubble of being a First Lady for decades. Wisdom vs experience was a good tactic, but outside experience vs inside would work even better. What's more, it plays to your strength, letting you weave narratives and inspire people at the same time you demonstrate your experience.
Hillary Clinton: My advice to you is simpler because your problem is simpler - legitimacy. If you're 200 delegates behind and losing more elections than you're winning, even late, you might be able to eek out a win, but only at the cost of pissing off people you'll need in November.
What should you do about that? It's simple. Start contesting everything. Stop playing the unimportant state game and fight for Wyoming and Mississippi. Win in North Carolina and Oregon, Indiana and Montana, and you'll make a much stronger case for your nomination. Start a winning streak of your own, and you'll get the nomination.
The other advice I have is one you're starting to heed. Stop fighting for FL and MI to be seated as is and start calling for new elections there. You can still win the states and getting delegates that way will win a lot more points than trying to force the rest of the party to accept elections that everyone agreed wouldn't count. Stop spinning and start winning.