With the popular vote becoming one of two key benchmarks for superdelegate "high ground," as this race gets closer and closer, I noticed that the popular vote count has been unable to include caucus states:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine have not released (and perhaps don't know?) total votes cast in their caucuses.
However, any argument about "respecting the popular vote" should at the very least include these states, if not for their delegates then for their voters! As an Obama supporter, I'm concerned that it might become conventional wisdom to overlook them.
So I took a few minutes to try to gather conservative estimates for voter turnout from each of the four states, and then to apply the split of local elected delegates as reported in the press, to the voter count. Note that this calculation somewhat distorts the splits in votes cast because it reflects a representative proportional system where delegates are not "split."
Nevertheless, the math shows that Obama likely deserves credit for at least 100,000 additional votes in his popular vote tally -- and this may well prove critical in sealing the deal if Clinton keeps it close.
Est. Turnout
Iowa 225000
Maine 50000
Nevada 115000
Wash. 250000
Obama - Clinton split in % reps
Iowa + 7%
Maine + 19%
Nevada - 10%
Wash. + 35%
Net Obama Votes
Iowa + 15,750
Maine + 9,500
Nevada - 11,500
Wash. + 87,500
Net Obama 101,250
(rough estimate)
Let me know what you think, or if you've seen more reliable estimates of voter turnout in any of these states. Assuming I'm in the ballpark correct, it may be worth trying to remind press of this (assuming you're an Obama supporter or agree with the presmise :)
Peace.
* Updated to reflect NY times report of Dem washington state party estimate of 250k votes cast.
** Updated Maine for posterity -- not sure what news article i saw the original incorrect estimate in.