Last Sunday before Bill Clinton took the stage at the California Democratic Convention I stood on the left side of floor in the midst of the 200+ strong pod of Clinton supporters waiting for Bill to arrive.
The Clinton sign-toters formed a diverse, well-scrubbed group of delegates notable for how many folks had brought their teen-aged children in tow. The impression you got was that these were life-long party activists who were passing a tradition along to their kids. If anything struck me demographically, it was that the Clinton delegates had a vaguely suburban vibe.
When Bill did take the stage something remarkable happened. In unison, the Hillary signs went up and the Clinton delegates strode in formation towards the podium with an ease and confidence of long practice.
I thought to myself, these folks aren't new at this. They've done this before. In fact, looking at the assembled sign-toters something struck me for the first time, Hillary's supporters know conventions.
I bet her supporters in San Jose included many who'd been to national conventions before.
I learned a great deal at the California Democratic Party Convention in San Jose but that insight forms the core of what I'd like to share with you tonight:
Hillary Clinton's core supporters are her greatest resource. They are experienced party activists.
Whatever happens with the nomination, what Clinton's supporters do over the next months will have a major impact on the performance of the Democratic Party as a whole in all of our races in November.
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this is the Clinton moment
I want to make three points clear.
Point one. I am absolutely convinced that every Clinton activist I met in San Jose will work enthusiastically for the eventual nominee. We will need every last one of them; these are core experienced activists.
Point two. I am also convinced, however, that Clinton party activists will stick with Hillary to Denver if she asks them to, and that their experience, loyalty and discipline will be an utterly formidable resource for Clinton in Denver if it comes to that.
Point three. Every spoken and unspoken, "insider" and "outsider" piece of information I could glean in San Jose pointed to the fact that there is a majority within the Democratic party, especially our elected leadership, who are convinced that Barack Obama will be the nominee and support him.
Those three insights mean, for all practical intents and purposes, something somewhat counter-intuitive. The person currently with the most control over our party's ability to rally around the nominee and work for victory in November is Hillary Clinton. And that is despite the fact that a majority inside the party are confident that Obama will be the nominee.
Those three factors, and a run of state primaries that favor Clinton, have created what I would call the Clinton moment.
If Hillary decides to push to Denver, in particular if she picks up John and Elizabeth Edwards' endorsement, she can virtually guarantee that an experienced core base of party activists will be locked up supporting her long shot attempt to win the nomination. Whether Clinton eventually wins or loses in Denver, she will take those activists off the table for the spring and summer, pulling them away from work against McCain and in support of down-ticket races.
That would be devastating to the Democratic Party.
It is also, however, like it or not, Hillary's best shot at the nomination.
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the inside consensus
Without giving away any confidences, the clear sense of the convention in San Jose was that Barack Obama is our nominee.
Bill Clinton had a private meeting with Super Delegates, but only half of those who could have attended that meeting actually chose to do so and those that did reported on it in a neutral manner for the most part.
Party activists take the endorsements from Bill Richardson, Bob Casey Jr. and Amy Klobuchar exactly how you think they would. None of those three elected leaders intends to spend the next eight years in the political wilderness.
They are rallying behind the nominee, and it was clear in San Jose that they aren't alone.
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the Latino Caucus
The Latino Caucus at the California State Party Convention was fairly evenly split between those wearing Clinton and Obama buttons. Younger folks leaned Obama. Older folks leaned Clinton. That being said, three very interesting things happened.
First, of the three publicly acknowledged Super Delegates in the room, two were undecided and one stood with Barack Obama.
Second, the theme of the caucus, aside from the obvious one of growing the number of Latino voters and the caucus itself, was home foreclosures, education and health care ie. the same issues Democrats of all backgrounds talk about.
Finally, legendary Latino activist and playwright Luis Valdez got up to make an impromptu speech. He talked about hope and the need for change. He talked about the days of Cesar Chavez. He talked about his perception that James Carville had singled out Bill Richardson as a Latino in calling him a "Judas" and the room erupted in agreement. Valdez concluded with this thought, (I'm paraphrasing here):
"Whomever you support...Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama...I want you to realize that our community has to rally behind the winner. We need to come together behind a winner. Barack Obama is a winner."
It was an unreported moment at the convention that every one who witnessed it later agreed was very significant. That speech made ripples whether one agreed with it or not. There are no easy assumptions to make about Clinton's ongoing support.
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"I'm on strike from that blog"
There was a moment that gave me pause. I was having a friendly conversation with three SoCal kossacks in the hallway on Saturday when two Los Angeles-based delegates approached. These women, both experienced delegates and friendly Clinton supporters, were happy to chat about what we had in common: blog reading, support for Debra Bowen, curiosity about the Migden/Leno battle and the 2010 governor's race. One of the women, wearing a Hillary button, went out of her way to compliment our group of younger delegates (wearing Obama buttons aside from me...a press pass guy) for attending the convention. I asked her if she read DailyKos and she replied curtly:
"I'm on strike from that blog."
That surprised me. I've met thousands of kossacks whether at Las Vegas or Chicago or events here in California, and I've never once had a negative experience asking if someone reads DailyKos. In fact, I've met people who disagree with me vigorously online who were completely cordial and friendly in person. Heck, Todd Beeton of MyDD and I had a very friendly time at Drinking Liberally in San Jose on Saturday and he later promoted a diary of mine on Sunday at MyDD. Blog battles rarely translate into real life animosity. Obama's line about "Friends before and friends afterwards" is true.
That's what struck me with that comment. I think we've all got to take a step back and think about that for a second. This was a woman who was cordial and welcoming and yet she felt estranged from DailyKos. The strike shut down the conversation.
That needs to change. Now.
I'm open to your suggestions how.
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a round table of observations
The final night of the convention we had an impromptu round table with a diverse array of delegates from all over the state. I learned some things that confirmed my overall experience of the convention:
I learned that some Jewish-American Democrats, confirming conversations I've had multiple other places, have grave concerns and equally grave misperceptions about Rev. Jeremiah Wright and chose to speak about that in San Jose. I learned that many African-American activists have enormous respect for Senator Clinton and Bill Clinton that won't disappear with a single contested primary battle.
I learned that Obama's supporters are the newest and most diverse array of activists within the Democratic party: economically, ethnically, regionally, in terms of viewpoint and in terms of experience. Some Obama supporters are green newbies, some are old hands. You never know who will take the microphone at an Obama gathering. New and surprising leaders emerge from all quarters and supporting Obama means, quite literally, meeting new people and growing and stretching and learning for having done so.
I learned that there are many Edwards supporters who now favor Obama, but they are much more likely to have done so "quietly" and have not moved into leadership positions within the Obama side and do not speak out as forcefully as they did when Edwards was in the race. I learned that there are a large number of rural activists who favor Obama. I learned that folks on all sides agree that the Obama coalition could and should do a better job at incorporating the many Latino and Asian activists who support Obama, not just superficially but in terms of a real broadening of the leadership of the Obama coalition.
I also confirmed something I knew already about us progressives. Hard core progressive activists are much more likely to be focused on the single issues that drive progressive reform than simply being Obama or Clinton supporters. Progressive activists are also the MOST likely Democrats to be divisive and yell at each other. Some of that is because we are working to change the status quo. I think some of that is also because many of us think that's how we are supposed to be. Either way, the divisive battles that mark Democratic politics sometimes and drain our resources and unity are the most glaring in our wing of the party.
Conclusion
This is, for all of that, a Clinton moment.
I find myself, as a Democrat, leaving the California Party convention with huge respect for every last Democratic activist. I was floored by the new energy and the youth energy present in San Jose. I think a great deal of that energy comes from Obama's campaign in 2008. But, clearly, Senator Clinton, for as much as the facts on the ground and the party leadership have lined up against her, has the bedrock support of some of the most experienced activists in the Democratic base.
Obama and the Party need every last one of those activists. Dailykos does too. And we need them sooner rather than later. There is so much at stake in 2008. There's too much at stake to be divided going into Denver. My concluding thought coming from San Jose is this. Obama needs to solidify his coalition. He needs to win over doubting Democrats and include those who have yet to feel fully included. To win, Barack Obama will need every last experienced activist the Democratic party can muster and those experienced activists need to feel utilized and included as respected equals.
Senator Clinton is in a powerful position. Her supporters are among the best activists the Democratic Party has. I do not doubt that every last Clinton activist in the party will work for the nominee. The question is when that will happen, not whether they will support the nominee. I like and trust Clinton's activist supporters. These are good people who deserve our respect. If Clinton continues down this path, her choice will shape our party's chances in November up and downticket. Bill Clinton famously told California Democrats to "chill out." I don't agree. Jerry McNerney and Charlie Brown can't afford to chill out. Scott Kleeb and Darcy Burner and Larry Kissell can't afford to chill out.
We need to come together. We need to get on the same page. We need to get positive and stop fighting each other. And at some point, Senator Clinton will have to make up her mind. If she chooses to be divisive, we have to resist the urge to be divisive to her supporters in return. They aren't Hillary, and we need every last one of them.
Standing in the midst of Senator Clinton's sign-toters I felt at home. These were Democrats I recognized from the fight to defeat Richard Pombo in CA-11. These were party activists I'd worked with before. I do not doubt for one second these folks will be fighting John McCain in November.
My biggest question is when do we start.
That's something on all of our minds. It's something that Senator Clinton has a powerful say over.