My name is Andrew Frank, and I am a 3rd year student at Dakota Wesleyan University in Mitchell, SD. My class was responsible for conducting the 2008 DWU Tiger Poll, which asked citizens in both North and South Dakota their opinions about the upcoming elections.
The full press release is below the fold, but here are some of the key numbers for those of you who don't want to go through the whole thing:
SD Dem. Primary: Obama-46 Clinton-34
ND Gen. Election: McCain-44 Obama-38 (Within the margin of error)
ND and SD-Biggest issue facing the country today: Economy-37 Iraq-15 Healthcare-8 Gas Prices-7
DWU Tiger Poll: Economy on Mind of Voters in Dakotas,
Democrats prefer Obama, ND Potential Blue State
MITCHELL – The economy is weighing heavy on the minds of voters in the Dakotas and Democrats in both states prefer Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton. In a general election Obama would lose to John McCain in South Dakota but the race is too close to call in North Dakota, according to researchers at Dakota Wesleyan University.
The poll of 527 North and South Dakota voters conducted March 24-April 3, 2008 indicated that 46 percent of South Dakota Democrats would vote for Obama in the upcoming June 3rd primary, 34 percent for Clinton, and 10 percent are undecided. Of the remaining 10 percent, 6 percent said they would not vote and 4 percent said they would vote for someone else.
The South Dakota Democratic Party decided last month against allowing Independents to vote in the Democratic primary, but the DWU Tiger Poll indicates that Independent voters might have increased the margin of victory for Obama. Among Independents surveyed, 38 percent indicated they would vote for Obama, 29 percent for Clinton, 29 percent would not have voted, and 5 percent remained undecided.
North Dakotans do not register to vote by political party, however, among those contacted who identified themselves as Democrats, Obama received 54 percent compared to 29 percent for Clinton, and 12 percent undecided. Of the remaining 5 percent of voters, 4 percent said they would not vote and 1 percent said they would vote for someone else. The 25-point margin favoring Obama is almost identical to the 24-percent margin of victory that he received during the February 5th North Dakota Democratic Caucuses.
Among Independent voters surveyed in North Dakota, in a theoretical Obama verses Clinton election 43 percent said they would vote for Obama, 23 percent for Clinton, 21 percent were undecided, 11 percent would not vote, and 2 percent would vote for some other candidate.
In general election match-ups in the Dakotas between Obama and McCain, McCain easily wins South Dakota, 51 percent to 34 percent, with 9 percent undecided, 4 percent who would not vote, and 3 percent voting for someone else. In North Dakota, however, McCain and Obama appear to be in a statistical dead heat. The DWU Tiger Poll shows McCain with a slight lead over Obama, at 44 to 38 percent, but within the poll’s margin of error, with 12 percent still undecided, 3 percent who would not vote, and 3 percent voting for someone else.
The DWU Tiger Poll appears to confirm the results of a SurveyUSA poll conducted in early March that indicated the race in North Dakota is very close, with Obama beating McCain by 46 percent to 42 percent in that state. As with the DWU poll, the SurveyUSA outcome was within the survey’s margin of error, surprising given the fact that North Dakota has not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964.
Clinton did not fare well in either of the Dakotas in a general election contest. In a Clinton versus McCain matchup in South Dakota, McCain’s support grows to 59 percent compared to Clinton’s 30 percent. Of the remainder of South Dakota voters, 6 percent are undecided, 3 percent would not vote, and 3 percent would vote for someone else.
In North Dakota Clinton polled slightly better against McCain in a general election than she did in South Dakota. McCain’s advantage, however, remains formidable at 53 percent compared to Clinton’s 33 percent. Of the remainder of surveyed voters, 10 percent of North Dakotans were undecided, 3 percent said they would not vote, and 1 percent indicated they would vote for someone else.
DWU Tiger Poll data also indicates that the economy, not the War in Iraq, will be very much on the minds of Dakotans when they cast their ballot this year. While only 15 percent of North and South Dakotans identified the War in Iraq as the "most important problem facing our country today," more than twice that number, 37 percent, identified the economy as the biggest problem our country faces.
When asked about the most important problem facing our country today, 37 percent identified the economy and jobs, 15 percent said the War in Iraq, 8 percent said healthcare, and 7 percent identified gas and fuel prices. Thirty-three percent listed something else.
Among Democrats in North and South Dakota, 42 percent said the economy and jobs were the country’s most pressing problem, 21 percent said the War in Iraq, 10 percent said healthcare, and 5 percent said gas and fuel prices, and 22 percent said something else or did not respond.
When asked the same question, 31 percent of Republicans identified the economy and jobs, 9 percent said gas and fuel prices, 7 percent said healthcare, 6 percent said the War in Iraq, and 44 percent listed something else or did not give a response.
Among Independents in both states, 45 percent said the economy and jobs, 11 percent said the War in Iraq, 9 percent said gas and fuel prices, 7 percent said the deficit and national debt, and 2 percent each said healthcare, immigration, global warming, and education. Twenty percent listed something else, and 2 percent did not know or did not give a response.
Despite the concern about the economy, North and South Dakotans have a generally positive view on the quality of life in their respective states. Twenty-five percent say quality of life in their state is excellent, 49 percent say it is good, 21 percent say fair, and 4 percent say it is poor.
Seventy-five percent of South Dakotans said the quality of life in their state was excellent or good, compared to seventy-three percent of North Dakotans. However, the percentage of South Dakotans who view the quality of life in their state as good or excellent has dropped 10 percentage points over the past twelve months, according to DWU researchers. When asked the same question in 2007, more than 85 percent of South Dakotans responded that the quality of life in their state was good or excellent. Since 2008 is the first year DWU has conducted a poll in North Dakota, no comparative data about quality of life in that state is available at this time.
The DWU Tiger Poll is a joint project of the Center for Leadership and Public Service and the Mathematics Department at Dakota Wesleyan University. Dr. Donald Simmons, Dr. Michael Catalano, and Dr. Rocky Von Eye form the faculty research team for the DWU Tiger Poll. Student research coordinators for the 2008 DWU Tiger Poll are Nicole Dufek, Andrew Frank, Nick Gates, Katrina Jarding, and Marcus Vontz.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent for the entire sample, with entire statewide sample margins of error at 6 percent. Subset sample margins of error vary depending on selected sample sizes.
More detailed information about the poll results is available online at www.mcgoverncenter.com/poll2008