cross-posted from Election Inspection
Below the flip, a rundown of the latest polls in Pennsylvania and North Carolina with predictions, plus Indiana, Kentucky, and South Dakota polls too.
Latest Pennsylvania primary polls:
|Franklin & Marshall||4/8-4/13||42||49|
|Strategic Vision (R)||4/11-4/13||40||49|
|American Research Group||4/11-4/13||37||57|
PPP: Obama leads by 3, gains 6 from the prior week. Outlier.
LA Times: Clinton leads by 5. Lower border of the margin.
Rasmussen: Clinton leads by 9, gains 4 from the prior week. Median poll.
SurveyUSA: Clinton leads by 14, loses 4 from the prior week. Last week was an outlier, this week is upper border of the margin.
Franklin & Marshall: Clinton leads by 7, loses 9 from the prior month. Low-median.
Strategic Vision: Clinton leads by 9, gains 4 from the prior week. Median but invalid due to methodology as described in an earlier post.
Quinnipiac: Clinton leads by 6, no change. Low.
ARG: Clinton leads by 20, gains 20 from the prior week.
The rest of the polls are pre-"bitter" and hence part of the prior week's news cycle. Last week I felt the margin was 1%-10% for Clinton, with SUSA and ARG as outliers on either side. This week I consider the margin to be 5%-15% for Clinton, with a median of 9% and a total delegate gain of 14. PPP and ARG are this week's outliers, both for the second time. PPP had another outlier showing Obama leading Clinton two weeks ago, while ARG's previous outlier was last week's declaration of a tie. This indicates that PPP has been consistently polling with better numbers for Obama than the average, while ARG is just all over the place.
Latest North Carolina primary polls:
|TelOpinion Research/Civitas (R)||4/9-4/10||45||27|
ARG: Obama leads by 11, loses 2 from 2 weeks ago. Lower border of the margin.
LA Times: Obama leads by 13. Low.
Insider Advantage: Obama leads by 15, no change since 3 weeks prior. Median poll.
PPP: Obama leads by 20, loses 1 from a week prior. Upper border of the median.
This looks to me like this week's margin is 10%-20% for Obama, with a median of 15% and a gain of 9 delegates from NC's 13 congressional districts. However, I expect the actual result will be a lead of 20% or more for Obama due to the superior GOTV he has in North Carolina.
Latest Indiana primary polls:
Not enough data here to make any predictions just yet.
Latest Kentucky primary polls:
Clinton will win Kentucky by 20% or more.
Latest South Dakota primary polls:
|DWU Tiger Poll||3/24-4/3||46||34|
I think Obama will outperform this poll.