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cross-posted from Election Inspection

Below the flip, a rundown of the latest polls in Pennsylvania and North Carolina with predictions, plus Indiana, Kentucky, and South Dakota polls too.

Latest Pennsylvania primary polls:

LA Times/Bloomberg4/10-4/14 4146
SUSA 4/12-4/14 40 54
Franklin & Marshall 4/8-4/13 42 49
Strategic Vision (R) 4/11-4/13 40 49
Quinnipiac 4/9-4/13 44 50
American Research Group 4/11-4/13 37 57
Susquehana (R) 4/6-4/10 37 40
Zogby/Newsmax 4/9-4/10 43 47
Temple U. 3/27-4/9 41 47
InsiderAdvantage 4/8 38 48
PPP 4/7-4/8 43 46
Rasmussen 4/7 43 48
SUSA 4/5-4/7 38 56
ARG 4/5-4/6 45 45
Strategic Vision 4/4-4/6 42 47
Time 4/2-4/6 41 49
InsiderAdvantage 4/2 43 45

My review:

PPP: Obama leads by 3, gains 6 from the prior week. Outlier.
LA Times: Clinton leads by 5. Lower border of the margin.
Rasmussen: Clinton leads by 9, gains 4 from the prior week. Median poll.
SurveyUSA: Clinton leads by 14, loses 4 from the prior week. Last week was an outlier, this week is upper border of the margin.
Franklin & Marshall: Clinton leads by 7, loses 9 from the prior month. Low-median.
Strategic Vision: Clinton leads by 9, gains 4 from the prior week. Median but invalid due to methodology as described in an earlier post.
Quinnipiac: Clinton leads by 6, no change. Low.
ARG: Clinton leads by 20, gains 20 from the prior week.

The rest of the polls are pre-"bitter" and hence part of the prior week's news cycle. Last week I felt the margin was 1%-10% for Clinton, with SUSA and ARG as outliers on either side. This week I consider the margin to be 5%-15% for Clinton, with a median of 9% and a total delegate gain of 14. PPP and ARG are this week's outliers, both for the second time. PPP had another outlier showing Obama leading Clinton two weeks ago, while ARG's previous outlier was last week's declaration of a tie. This indicates that PPP has been consistently polling with better numbers for Obama than the average, while ARG is just all over the place.

Latest North Carolina primary polls:

LA Times/Bloomberg4/10-4/14 4734
InsiderAdvantage 4/14 51 36
PPP 4/12-4/13 54 34
TelOpinion Research/Civitas (R) 4/9-4/10 45 27
SUSA 4/5-4/7 49 39
PPP 4/5-4/6 54 33

My review:
ARG: Obama leads by 11, loses 2 from 2 weeks ago. Lower border of the margin.
LA Times: Obama leads by 13. Low.
Insider Advantage: Obama leads by 15, no change since 3 weeks prior. Median poll.
PPP: Obama leads by 20, loses 1 from a week prior. Upper border of the median.

This looks to me like this week's margin is 10%-20% for Obama, with a median of 15% and a gain of 9 delegates from NC's 13 congressional districts. However, I expect the actual result will be a lead of 20% or more for Obama due to the superior GOTV he has in North Carolina.

Latest Indiana primary polls:

LA Times/Bloomberg 4/10-4/154035
Research 20003/31-4/24649

Not enough data here to make any predictions just yet.

Latest Kentucky primary polls:


Clinton will win Kentucky by 20% or more.

Latest South Dakota primary polls:

DWU Tiger Poll3/24-4/34634

I think Obama will outperform this poll.

Originally posted to XStryker on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:02 AM PDT.


Who will win the Indiana Democratic primary?

74%171 votes
12%29 votes
0%1 votes
12%30 votes

| 231 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips/flames (19+ / 0-)

    One time the vending machine at work had Mrs. Freshley's Red Velvet Cakes. They were basically like Red Velvet Twinkies. One of the most delicious things I have ever eaten, but I have never seen them sold anywhere again.

    Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

    by XStryker on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:04:25 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for putting this all together (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    XStryker, notquitedelilah

    I think you've got the numbers reversed in the Kentucky poll.  Unless things have gone haywire there recently.  :)

    I am expecting a 10 point win for clinton in Penn.  If Obama can beat that I will be very happy.

    •  I expect (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      XStryker, RoscoeOfAlabama

      a 5pt margin for Clinton, maybe less.

      I've heard, for instance, that the local (Main Line outside Philly) Clinton office - which has 0 paid staff) can't find takers for all the lawn signs they have.

      Meanwhile the Obama campaign office up the street (1 full time paid staffer, 1 full time volunteer whose worked in multiple states + college campaign coordinator working out of the office and opened 2-3 weeks before the Clinton volunteer office) was having a tough time keeping up with demand AND each recipient is making a small donation (typically $5 or $10) when they pick up a sign.

      (OK, maybe the Clinton campaign printed lots more signs than the Obama campaign - since lawn signs have pretty much 0 impact on voter preference - they're fine for moral... - that'd just be another indication of which campaign is well run).

      Nothing scientific here, just a data point on the relative strength of the ground game in the very important ring suburbs of Philly.

      Democracy is a contact sport...

      by jsmagid on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:16:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Good catch, fixed. Thanks! n/t (0+ / 0-)

      Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

      by XStryker on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:37:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Any crosstabs (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rilkas, XStryker, FXDCI

    on region in any of the PA polls?

    My bet is that bitter-gate will have a blow-back (on Clinton) effect in SE PA (including Lehigh Valley) and possibly Pittsburgh metro area as well.

    Democracy is a contact sport...

    by jsmagid on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:08:33 AM PDT

  •  Good work and a question (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    XStryker, notquitedelilah

    Thanks very much for the round up. It's very useful to have a comprehensive view.

    Have you got any insights as to what marks the difference in polling strategies for PA btw PPP, LA times, QPAC on the one side and SUSA on the other? What make sthe difference?

    Help defend Reverend Jeremiah Wright!

    by Fairy Tale on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:10:50 AM PDT

    •  Tough question (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Fairy Tale

      SUSA and Rasmussen are robo-polls. SUSA pushes undecideds harder by not offering an "undecided" option at first. InsiderAdvantage polls tend to be decent in southern states and not so much elsewhere. PPP I should probably list as PPP (D) as they are a Democratic polling firm. Most university polls are lousy, but Quinnipiac's have been pretty accurate this cycle. However, Quinnipiac uses longer polling windows, which may smooth out daily fluctutations but also may lag overall trends. Rasmussen does a lot of one-day polls, which could be subject to some systemic bias depending on the day in question. Weekend polls are notoriously skewed, as they tend to undercount people with more active social lives. ARG and Zogby have reputations for weird outliers over the course of a race, then releasing a poll on the final day of the race that matches the general trend (possibly readjusting their turnout models to match the consensus).

      Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

      by XStryker on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:56:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SUSA has been a bit odd over (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    XStryker, paintitblue

    the last few weeks. I'm wondering what is happening. Either they are right and everyone else (don't even count ARG) is wrong, or they have a glitch somewhere.

    I am from MN, and if you think our caucuses were "undemocratic" I got a lake to introduce you to.

    by edgeways on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:11:30 AM PDT

  •  Columns wrong in KY poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    XStryker, christomento

    You've got O and C in the wrong columns.

  •  I just looked at the internals (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    biscobosco, rilkas, XStryker, Fairy Tale

    of the Franklin and Marshall poll.

    This looks very troubling

    CNTY. Region of state (What is the name of the county you live in?)
    21% Central
    16% Southeast
    14% Southwest
    13% Allegheny
    13% Northeast
    12% Northwest
    11% Philadelphia
    AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?
    2% 18-24
    7% 25-34
    13% 35-44
    23% 45-54
    23% 55-64
    32% 65 and older

    There's no way that Philly is just 11%, and there is no way that 18-34 makes up just 9%.  Philly will be closer to 20% and Central+SW+NW+NE will not be 55%. either.  Philly metro and Allegheny will be between 50-55% by itself.

    "The era of Scooter Libby justice, Brownie incompetence and Karl Rove politics will finally be over this year" Reject Marc Rich justice and Mark Penn politics.

    by IhateBush on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:21:56 AM PDT

  •  If Hillary wins PA by 9%, she loses (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    XStryker, RoscoeOfAlabama

    If that's the best she can do in a stronghold state where she was up by 20% a month ago, with Bittergate milked for all it was worth and then some, she has zero chance of persuading even half of the remaining superdelegates - let alone the super-majority she'll need by then - to override the pledged delegate total.

    It won't be long now until we can throw her candidacy on the trash heap of history.

    "They see us from afar, they come to a speech, they watch us on television. And they vote. And that is part of the process. An important part."-Hillary Clinton

    by Joe Beese on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:30:24 AM PDT

  •  Interesting that there is only (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    one poll where HRC is greater than 60%

    There once was a man named mccain, who had the whole white house to gain, but he was quite a hobbyist of boning his lobbyist, so much for his 08 campaign. SC

    by christomento on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:33:58 AM PDT

  •  You people really think Obama will win Indiana? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I'm not nearly as optimistic.

    Don't Legitimize Fox News.
    "Democrats have the heart to care."

    by jeepdad on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 11:04:08 AM PDT

    •  I don't think so (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      If there were no "Limbaugh Democrats", then Obama had a good chance.  But they will add 4-6% to Clinton's total.  Indiana is an open primary.

      "The era of Scooter Libby justice, Brownie incompetence and Karl Rove politics will finally be over this year" Reject Marc Rich justice and Mark Penn politics.

      by IhateBush on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 11:20:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good work...Question though. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I know Clinton is expected to win both W. Virginia and Kentucky but assuming she'll probably be out of money by then and that Obama still wins big in NC, might those states be a little closer than it appears now?

    •  Yes, but not by much in my opinion (0+ / 0-)

      These states are full of conservative Democrats, which tend strongly to prefer Clinton. On the other hand, Carnacki reports that the county conventions in West Virginia have been strongly favoring Obama. The delegate breakdown is supposed to be based on the primary vote, though, so I'm not sure what the impact is. Maybe the Clinton campaign will have lousy choices for delegates and end up picking a defector here and there? I don't know.

      Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

      by XStryker on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 11:57:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    None of the PA polls show Obama getting more than 45%. If new polls show him cross 45,that will be the beginning of the end for Clinton. He needs to work on the Philly suburbs and increase the turnout in order to avoid a double-digit loss.

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