This is an update to "The Cult of Popularity" from April 11 about the final ten contests in the Democratic Presidential Preference elections. Since we are just under one week until the Pennsylvania Primary - I thought now would be a good time for us to visit that "popular vote" strategy that Senator Clinton is trying to employ to sway delegates (both superdelegates and elected delegates) to her side.
I will repeat the same response I have whenever someone tries to rewrite the rules. The DNC determines the Democratic Nominee by only one measure: Delegate count in sanctioned, legitimate elections. However, to quell the cries, I've laid out the math of the popular vote scenario. Since the first post, Clinton has made a little headway in the projection (about 11,000 votes) due to a .8% increase in her Real Clear Politics average lead in PA and a new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky. However, at the same time Obama has tightened the race in Indiana and increased his numbers in Montana and South Dakota while losing a smidgen in North Carolina.
Popular Vote Totals and Projection for 2008 |
| Est 2008 | Spread O - C | Obama | Clinton | Obama Lead | Source Spread |
Primaries/Caucuses to date | (W/O 4 Caucus states & FL, MI) | 13,355,209 | 12,638,123 | 717,086 | RCP |
Pennsylvania | 1,476,640 | -8.6% | 674,824 | 801,815 | -126,991 | RCP Avg |
Guam | 1,961 | -14.7% | 836 | 1,125 | -289 | Somoa spread |
Indiana | 593,008 | -4.6% | 282,865 | 310,143 | -27,278 | RCP |
North Carolina (2000) | 1,018,701 | 14.5% | 583,206 | 435,495 | 147,711 | RCP Avg |
West Virginia | 472,668 | -28.0% | 170,161 | 32,508 | -132,347 | Pollster |
Kentucky | 429,815 | -32.5% | 145,063 | 284,752 | -139,689 | Pollster |
Oregon | 688,972 | 10.0% | 378,935 | 310,038 | 68,897 | Pollster |
Puerto Rico (2 million reg) | 1,060,000 | -13.0% | 461,100 | 598,900 | -137,800 | Pollster |
Montana | 174,873 | 12.2% | 98,104 | 76,769 | 21,335 | FiveThirtyEight |
South Dakota | 157,790 | 7.6% | 84,891 | 72,899 | 11,992 | FiveThirtyEight |
**SUBTOTAL** | Obama Lead (W/O IA, ME, NV, WA) | 16,235,194 | 15,832,567 | 402,627 | |
Caucuses in IA, ME, NV, WA | | | 334,084 | 223,862 | 110,222 | RCP |
**TOTAL** | (W/O illegitimate primaries in FL, MI) | 16,569,278 | 16,056,429 | 512,849 | |
**numbers current as of April 15, 2008**
In "The Cult of Popularity" I lay out, in detail, the steps getting these numbers. Here's a short synopsis:
- Real Clear Politics has the vote totals, to date.
- For the next 10 contests, the estimated increase turnout will be 87% higher than the 2004 Democratic Presidential Primary (in NC, we use 2000 and Puerto Rico uses a current poll figure).
- KY and WV appear to be very large spreads for Clinton. Limited polls available but give Clinton benefit of the doubt.
- Where possible, we use Real Clear Politics average of polls. In Guam we use 2008 Somoa percentage. MT & SD there are no polls so we use the difference in polls for Obama and Clinton against McCain in head-to-head.
- Next, I add in the estimate that Real Clear Politics gives for the voter breakdowns for the four caucus states.
That brings Obama's projected lead to 402,627 votes over Clinton. That's a difference of 1.3% between the two candidates. Since Clinton says delegates should consider the popular vote totals when deciding whom they should support - Obama still leads. It's a very slim lead, but a lead, none the less. Much slimmer than Obama's current delegate lead:
Per Real Clear Politics - Obama leads by 164 elected delegates (6.2%). When you add in the superdelegates (Where Clinton leads by 29) - Obama still leads by 135 (4.2%). These are more decisive leads (52% - 48%) and should delegates consider swaying their support by considering the popular vote - there is nothing there to help Clinton's chance.
Again - Obama campaign supports following the rules all the candidates agreed to, that it is the delegate count that matters. This entry is only here to hopefully silence the voices of the Clinton supporters that say we should consider the popular vote. When we project using reasonable numbers, Cinton will still be in second place when it comes to the popular vote tally. And that's with a couple of the projections being calculated more in her favor than they will end up in real life.
Unless a miracle occurs, Obama will win the popular vote along with the most states and most elected delegates in legitimate contests.
But what about Michigan and Florida?
It's a moot point. I sympathize with the voters in Michigan and Florida (Heck, I worked with the Florida Democratic Party in 2000), but the party leaders did nothing to follow the rules of the DNC in regards to their primary dates.
In Michigan, Governor Granholm (Democrat supporting Clinton) signed the bill into law that moved the primary up. Six of the eight Democratic Presidential candidates removed their names from the ballots - only Clinton and Kucinich did not.
In Florida, it was the Republican controlled legislature that moved up the date of the primary. However, the Democrats voted unanimously along with that date. Now some will say that it was tagged onto a good-government bill and they couldn't vote against it. I'll agree with that. But instead of calling an immediate press conference afterwards saying though they were completely against moving the date up, they supported the bill for all of the other sections. Also, the Florida Democratic Party leadership unanimously supported the move of the primary date at a June 2007 meeting. Democratic candidates were wary about removing their names from the ballots in Florida because by doing so, there is a Florida regulation that could mean they wouldn't appear on the General Election ballot in November.
Both state Democratic Parties knew the rules. They both played chicken with the DNC, putting their own voters at risk. When asked in 2007 about choosing between delegates being seated and being perceived as "relevant" to the process - they verbally chose relevant over seated delegates. Well, Howard Dean and the DNC didn't blink and the state Democratic Parties lost their own people their voice in the process.
So, since FL and MI didn't follow the rules that their people agreed to in 2006 - their elections were illegitimate and no results should be counted.