If Barack Obama wins half the delegates in the remaining nine primaries, he needs 100 of the 301 undecided super delegates to capture the nomination.
If he gathers more than half the delegates in any of the coming primaries, his magic number would drop accordingly. Of course, if he gathers less than 50% of the delegates in any of the contests, his magic number would climb slightly.
In comparison, Hillary Clinton needs to win half the delegates in all upcoming primaries and capture 230 of the 301 uncommitted super delegates.
Though Hillary won her neighboring state of Pennsylvania on Tuesday, the steady drip of super delegates to Obama is making the result inevitable.
To go through the numbers, Obama has 1720 delegates, according to Real Clear Politics, while Hillary has 1590. There are 408 in play in the remaining primaries. Of the super delegates, Hillary has 259 and Obama 235, leaving 301 uncommitted. It takes 2024 to win the nomination.
So we might ask how the contest for the super delegates will play out. Of course, some of them are probably carefully considering the differences between the candidates, and their elect ability, and are genuinely undecided. As most of these people make their living in politics, there are probably few in that primitive state of nature.
Game theory would be one way to consider how it goes from here. Each super delegate values their vote, if not to gain status and benefits personally, then as a way to do good for their constituents and the country.
The pledges of the super delegates have only moderate value early. The early pledges to Hillary received very little press coverage, though she may remember her early supporters fondly. The value of the pledges will probably peak in the next few weeks.
Once Obama has the nomination tied up, the value of the pledges of the uncommitted super delegates will approach zero.
As Obama’s magic number gets lower, there could be a snowball effect with super delegates anxious to play their card before its value expires.
If this snowball effect isn’t rolling by the time Obama’s magic number drops to 60, then it certainly will be gaining momentum at 40.
Once the snowball starts really rolling, we could have a nominee within days. Even the few who privately hope for Obama’s failure and a Hillary candidacy against McCain in 2012, will not seek to make themselves anathema to the party – Joe Lieberman, of course, being the exception.