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There has been a lot of talk today about Travis Childers' victory in MS-01 and the Democratic party's current streak of turning Republican seats blue. Though most people seem aware of the current 3-race streak of special election victories, many people probably aren't aware of a much larger trend. After mentioning this in another thread, I was encouraged to write a diary in order to reach a wider audience.

In all of the major races since the 2004 elections, Democrats have won 46 Republican-held seats, while Republicans have only won 1 Democratic-held seat.

Let's take a peek at all of the House, Senate, and Gubernatorial elections since 2004:

In 2005, 2 states held gubernatorial elections. Neither them resulted in a party switch.

During the 109th Congress ('05-'06), there were 6 special elections. None of them resulted in a party switch.

In the 2006 general election, 435 Congressmen, 33 Senators, and 36 Governors were elected. Of those, 30 House seats, 6 Senate seats, and 6 Governor's mansions switched parties. All of those switches were from Republican to Democrat.

In 2007, 3 states held gubernatorial elections. Two of them resulted in party switches. Kentucky went from Republican to Democrat, while Louisiana went from Democrat to Republican. The Louisiana race was hardly a contested election; Bobby Jindal won 54%-17%-14%-12%-2% and the only real Democrat on the ballot came in fourth place.

During the 110th Congress ('07-'08), we've thus far had 11 special elections. Of them, 3 have resulted in parties switches. All went from red to blue.

Add it up:  46-1. This run is truly historic. Imagine a sports team going 46-1. And if the Democratic party actually fielded a real candidate in the '07 Louisiana gubernatorial race, we could be on a 47-0 winning streak.

I really think we can keep this going in November. Rather than try to explain why myself, I'd like to point you in the direction of DemFromCT's analyses of the so-called "fundamentals":  here, here, here, here, and here. These numbers are much more important than any House, Senate, or Presidential polls you'll see right now. Not that the polls are showing bad news for us in November.

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Here's the full list of the red->blue switches:
MS-01
LA-06
IL-14
KY-Gov
AR-Gov
CO-Gov
MA-Gov
MD-Gov
NY-Gov
OH-Gov
AZ-05
AZ-08
CA-11
CO-07
CT-02
CT-05
FL-16
FL-22
IA-01
IA-02
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
KS-02
KY-03
MN-01
NC-11
NH-01
NH-02
NY-19
NY-20
NY-24
OH-18
PA-04
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
TX-22
TX-23
WI-08
MO-Sen
MT-Sen
OH-Sen
PA-Sen
RI-Sen
VA-Sen

I think the following people deserve a big "Thank You" for this success over the last four years:

Kathleen Sebelius, 2007 Democratic Governors Association chair.
Bill Richardson, 2005-2006 Democratic Governors Association chair.
Chris Van Hollen, 2007-present Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair.
Rahm Emanuel, 2005-2007 Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair.
Chuck Schumer, 2005-present Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair.

Originally posted to Yirmiyahu on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:56 PM PDT.

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