How many super delegates does Obama now need to prevent Clinton from getting to 2024.5?
9, maybe 10, 11 or 12.
To start with, Clinton needs 306 to win. There are two pools of delegates. 189 pledged delegates from the remaining contests, and 211 super delegates (217-6 in the Pelosi club-Carter, Cantwell, 2 Pelosis, 2 TX DNCers). Assume she blows out Obama by 21 PDs with big wins in KY and PR compared to modest wins by Obama in OR, SD and MT (105-84). (There are also 9 Edwards delegates, but let’s consider them out of play.)
With a 21 point deficit in the remaining contests, Obama needs only 11 supers, (that’s right, count ‘em 11, supers) to prevent Clinton from reaching 2024.5 delegates.
The final math comes tomorrow or Wednesday.
With 211 remaining supers and Clinton needing 201 (306-105), Obama needs only 11 Supers to knock the pool to 200, below the 201 that Clinton needs to win.
By Wednesday evening, Obama will orchestrate the super rollout as he passes the significant milestone of half the PDs. He'll pass it with 20 or more, not the 10 he needs. And hopefully, on Wednesday evening, everyone will remember the following:
-That there are still 27 supers in Obama states still to be selected.
-That there are twice as many uncommitted DNC members in Obama states than there are Clinton states.
-That in May, Obama has a net gain of 60 supers compared to single digits for Clinton.
-That Obama passed the halfway mark in pledged delegates
-That last week, he edged above Clinton in super delegates and is rapidly climbing into the 30s.
-That among pledged delegates, he surpasses Clinton in Senators, Governors, Representatives, and now DNC members.
-That today he got Senator Byrd's endorsement.
-That there are more high profile endorsements between Byrd on Monday, and Barack's address on Wednesday