After today's ruling by the Rules & Bylaws Committee to seat Florida at half strength based on the results of the state's January 29th primary, and Michigan at half strength based off of the compromise 69-59 position, this leaves Barack Obama with 2,053 delegates to Hillary Clinton's 1,876.5 (source: DemConWatch). The new magic number is now 2,117 - something that moves the goalposts 23 delegates back for Obama and 2.5 delegates closer for Clinton...basically leading us to the conclusion that this whole exercise by the Clinton campaign didn't really move it further to the nomination; it only puts Obama further back.
From here, though, when ones looks at the projected results from the last 3 contests in Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana, it becomes clear that for Obama, he only requires 12.5 delegates to claim that he has rightfully won the nomination. Follow me below the fold for the math...
Puerto Rico (June 1st primary, 55 pledged delegates)
A good overview of what is likely to happen in the Caribbean territory can be found here by Kossack ycompanys. A projection can also be found at Electoral-Vote.com, and is one that I am inclined to agree with when compared to what ycompanys discussed above. The likely result is for Clinton to net out 31 pledged delegates to Obama's 24. The worst-case scenario is that Clinton manages to earn more than 62.5% in a lot of the 4-delegate districts to get 3-1 splits. However, ycompanys forecasts that only one of those (Ponce) leans towards Clinton, so the realistic worst case is that the final result is 32-23 instead. Given that the polls in Puerto Rico show Obama with a base support at about 40%, it's highly unlikely that Clinton will win any sort of wipeout.
After Puerto Rico, the delegate count based off of today's numbers will be as follows (assuming a 31-24 delegate split):
Barack Obama: 2,077 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 1,907.5 delegates
South Dakota (June 3rd primary, 15 pledged delegates)
There's been almost no polling done of the state (Pollster.com has the results only for one poll), so I'm not going to bother guessing the percentages by which the candidates will get. That being said, it's almost a foregone conclusion that Obama will win the state. As such, there are only a couple of key numbers to look for:
61.11% - this is the percentage of the two-way popular vote Obama needs to capture 6 out of the 9 delegates allocated at the congressional level. I think Obama would've gotten to it had he campaigned harder in the state, but I don't think he'll be able to top it. In North Dakota, a caucus state, Obama managed 61% of the vote. Since this is a primary, I would expect his numbers to be down slightly from those, and thus will only earn a 5-4 CD split.
62.5% - if Obama gets upwards of the 61.11% needed at the CD level, this is the next number to look at. There are 4 at-large delegates, so Obama would need to earn higher than this number to get an extra delegate here. Again, since I don't think he'll reach 61.11% of the vote, he won't get here either. The at-large delegates will split evenly 2-2.
Obama's victory here isn't in doubt - the two statewide elected Democrats (Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin and Sen. Tim Johnson) have endorsed him, and former Sen. Tom Daschle has been one of Obama's biggest boosters (as well as one of his earliest endorsers).
Since there are only 2 pledged PLEO delegates, it's a foregone conclusion these will be split 1-1. Therefore, here's how the delegates will split:
Allocation of SD pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 8 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 7 pledged delegates
Montana (June 3rd primary, 16 pledged delegates)
Again, the sparse polling that has been done shows Obama to be winning in the state. There's a kink in the delegate allocation system, though - the delegates allocated at the congressional district level are based on Montana's old congressional representation, when it had two districts. Therefore, the state, for the primary, effectively has two CDs, each with 5 pledged delegates.
While it's possible that they may split the districts, Obama should be favored to win both, although by nowhere near the 70% needed to get a 4-1 split in either one of them. He'll take both CDs by a 3-2 split. With the same number of at-large (4) and pledged PLEO (2) delegates, the situation is similar to South Dakota above: Obama needs more than 62.5% of the vote to get a 3-1 at-large split. I don't see it happening as of now; grossing up the Mason-Dixon poll that was done gives Obama 59.8% of the vote - which is probably around where he'll land.
The delegate allocation for Montana will be as follows:
Allocation of MT pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 9 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 7 pledged delegates
Why Obama needs only 4.5 more delegates to clinch the nomination
After the contests on June 3rd, the delegate totals will look like this:
Barack Obama: 2,094 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 1,921.5 delegates
At this point, Obama will be 23 delegates away from the nomination. So how do I come up with 4.5 delegates for Obama?
Simple: first, let's take a look at the delegates left for John Edwards. Per DCW, he now has 12.5 pledged delegates. Since Edwards has endorsed Obama - and 12 pledged delegates from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have already endorsed Obama, compared with 0 who have moved to Hillary - I feel safe in assuming that Edwards' remaining delegates will remain true to their candidate's wishes and endorse Obama. That brings us down to 10.5 delegates for Obama.
Second, there's the 'Pelosi Club' of superdelegates who have stated they will back the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates. As there is no doubt now that it will be Obama who comes out ahead, it is safe to say that Obama will pick up the support of five uncommitted superdelegates - including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen - along with flipping Sen. Maria Cantwell, who currently supports Clinton.
That brings us down to a grand total of 4.5 delegates that Barack Obama truly needs to win the nomination. Given that Obama has supposedly banked 3 dozen superdelegates - and that, per Al Giordano, there is a sizable group of Clinton superdelegates and pledged delegates who will flip to Obama - the race will effectively be over a couple days after Montana brings an end to the voting in the this Democratic presidential primary. And that's not even counting the remaining add-on superdelegates that remain, which will almost certainly be more than the 4.5 delegates that are needed.
In short, for all of the huffing and puffing that Harold Ickes does over a measly 4 delegates, it won't change a damn thing. Someone should ask the Clinton campaign if it was worth it or not.