Quinnipiac has just released a poll showing Sen. Barack Obama with a 47-43 (41-45) lead over McCain in Florida, outside the 2.6% margin of error.
Updated It gets even better than the AP wire report - Quinnipiac also now has Obama up in:
Ohio 48-42 (Obama was down 40-44)
and
Pennsylvania 52-40 (Obama was up 46-40)
YES!
update III I had originally blockquoted one paragraph from the AP wire story, which would have sent more people to their page, which would have then resulted in traffic for their online advertisers, but then I was reminded that the AP hates traffic, so I encourage you to go to the Quinnipiac page-
From Quinnipiac:
In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state.
"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, although his margins in Florida and Ohio are small," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president."
No sign of any problem with women. And McCain only leads seniors in Flordia 46-44, and in Ohio 47-43. And Obama leads PA seniors 48-43. These numbers are FANTASTIC.
As we all know, it's going to come down to turnout. So make sure to sign up to volunteer at my.barackobama.com and donate to his campaign and to the DNC (DNC link in my tip jar).
Update II Thanks to Scarce below for these trendlines out of FL. McCain's numbers come first.
Quinnipiac 5/13-20/08 1419 RV 45 41 2 8 4
Quinnipiac 4/23-29/08 1411 RV 44 43 1 8 4
Quinnipiac 3/24-31/08 1136 RV 46 37 3 9 6
Also from Scarce (make sure to tip him/her), Trends from OH, Obama numbers McCain numbers first.
Quinnipiac 5/13-20/08 1244 RV 44 40 2 9 5
Quinnipiac 4/23-29/08 1127 RV 43 42 2 8 5
Quinnipiac 3/24-31/08 1238 RV 42 43 2 8 5
Quinnipiac 2/6-12/08 1748 RV 42 40 3 10 5
The Quinnipiac poll commentary mentioned the "End of Primary/Hillary Endorsement Bounce." Can we put the "will her supporters back him" meme to bed now?
Update IV Poblano (Nate) is much smarter than me about these numbers, so go read what he has to say, which includes:
A little more than two months ago, I ran through a scenario that predicted what might happen if half of the Hillary Clinton Democrats who said they were going to vote for John McCain instead gravitated back to Barack Obama. The prediction was that the so-called "unity bounce" would be worth 4-5 points to Obama in the popular vote, bringing him northward of 320 electoral votes and making him roughly a 3 to 1 favorite to win the election.
That is almost exactly where we have Barack Obama's numbers after a series of new polls from Quinnipiac.
If you're not reading Five Thirty Eight every day, you're missing out.