Joe Lieberman has announced that he will speak at the RNC convention, while he is still a Senator who caucuses with the Democrats. That is an irreparable break -- a wound that will never be healed. Were it not for the unusual situation we find ourselves in, where a Lieberman switch effectively gives Republicans the majority, the Democratic caucus would have kicked him out long ago.
Of course, that situation will change in November, when Democrats will win anywhere from 5 to 8 seats in the 2008 Senate elections. After that event, Lieberman's value to the Democratic party will be nil. And Lieberman knows this. He has no future with the Democratic party.
That's why, I predict, Lieberman will bolt the Democratic party in August, right before the Republican convention, and caucus with Mitch McConnell and the Republicans. His political future is with the Republicans, and he will help them out immensely with an August switch.
But we can stop him, or at least, limit his ability to cause mischief.
You see, if Lieberman switches, Mitch McConnell will not automatically become the majority leader, and Harry Reid will not automatically become the minority leader. The situation is different from 2001, when Jim Jeffords of Vermont switched and made Tom Daschle the majority leader for the Democrats. Then, Daschle, with his 50-50 split, negotiated an advantageous agreement with Trent Lott whereby there was no need to pass a new resolution switching Senate leadership should the majority switch between the parties. Thus, Jeffords' switch automatically demoted Lott and promoted Daschle.
Now, however, there is no such agreement. When Lieberman switches, as he will in August, the Republicans will need to pass a new resolution to give Mitch McConnell the big chair. And, like everything else in the Senate, a new organizing resolution will require 60 votes to pass. And the Republicans don't have 60 votes.
But they do have one thing -- the ability to apply political pressure. The Republicans will argue that, when Lieberman switches, the fair and honorable thing would be for the Democrats to unilaterally disarm and turn the Senate over to the Republicans. And some Democrats, being Democrats, will respond to that pressure and consider caving (as the old joke goes, a Democrat is someone so fair-minded he won't even take his own side in an argument).
But we can't let them. The Senate leader controls the Senate schedule. And this year, when both Presidential nominees are Senators, the Senate schedule can be used to schedule votes that embarass the opposing party's nominee. Harry Reid needs to keep that control, Lieberman or no Lieberman.
This battle will be joined in August. Mark my words, Lieberman will switch parties. (We shouldn't push him. The time for that is gone. We need to make Lieberman hurt on this one. We need to make him pull the trigger himself, so that he will further disgust those remaining Connecticut Democrats who falsely believe he deserves their trust). And he will immediately then argue that Reid should give up control, and give that control to Mitch McConnel and John McCain. And we need to make sure, in response, that that never ever happens.