A poll released today is titled:
FAVORITE SON McCAIN STRENGTH IN ARIZONA SHRINKS.
OBAMA GAINS AMONG MEN, DEMOCRATS AND LATINOS.
In late July, a survey of 401 voters in Arizona’s most populous county, McCain’s lead
over Obama has narrowed to within five points ( 43% for McCain to 38% for Obama).
Highlights:
As recently as May of this year, McCain led by 53 to 38 percent.
...
McCain’s narrowing lead traces not to any sudden up-swelling in support for Obama,
whose support has hovered around 38 percent for the past year and remains at that level today.
Rather, it traces to a decline in support of McCain, especially among men, registered
Independents and Latinos. Simultaneously, the proportion of voters who are uncommitted rose to 16 percent from only nine this May and Ralph Nader drew a small but important three percent,
mostly from McCain.
....
Finally, even though Latino voters have in the past displayed a tendency to favor Democratic candidates, John McCain has long been able to attract from a quarter to a third of their vote.
This appears not to be the case today. Seventy- nine percent of Latinos in this survey say they will vote for Barack Obama while McCain’s share registers at only nine percent.
I don't expect Obama to actually take AZ but I think theses results from McCains home state are a fair indicator of how his campaign is being recieved nationwide
Full poll can be found here (warning- PDF)