A review of the latest polls from SurveyUSA shows promising news in the midwest. First up, on the Missouri side - Kay Barnes - well-liked, former Kansas City Mayor and Democratic candidate for MO-06. SurveyUSA says:
Democrat Challenger Barnes Creeps-Up on Incumbent Republican Graves in MO6: In an election for United States House of Representatives from Missouri's 6th Congressional District today, 08/01/08, incumbent Republican Sam Graves edges Democrat Kay Barnes 48% to 44%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV Kansas City. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10 weeks ago, Graves is flat, Barnes is up. Among men, Graves had led by 19, now leads by 23. Among women, the two had been tied; today, Barnes leads by 17 points -- a 40-point gender gap.
Great news! Barnes is pulling even and within striking distance of victory. Looks like Missourians are waking up to the fact that Sam Graves does not represent their best interests. All they need to do is wander down to the gas station or the grocery and look at the prices to see that Sam Graves and the Republican policies are a disaster. They feel it every day and with a strong push, Sam Graves is going to be feeling it in November when he gets his walking papers from Missouri voters. Stop by Kay's website to see how you can help show Graves the door.
Next up is Jay Nixon, Missouri's long time Attorney General. He was set to take on incumbent Matt Blunt, but Matt Blunt mysteriously announced he would not seek a second term - proclaiming he had accomplished all he set out to do. (Some people say that there is much more to this story) Instead, he'll face the winner of the Republican primary - either Sarah Steelman or Kenny Hulshof. SurveyUSA says:
MO Statehouse Still Leans To Democrat Takeaway, 3 Months to Vote ... But, Momentum with GOP: In an election for Missouri Governor today, 08/01/08, 95 days to the vote, Democrat Jay Nixon defeats either of his likely Republican opponents, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV in Kansas City and KSDK-TV in St. Louis. Today, Nixon, Missouri's Attorney General, defeats Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof 48% to 42%; Nixon defeats Republican State Treasurer Sarah Steelman 50% to 41%. But, Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released ten weeks ago, Nixon has lost ground. Then, Nixon led Hulshof by 24 points and led Steelman by 25 points. Today, Nixon leads Hulshof by 6 points and Steelman by 9. Against either Republican, Nixon carries at least half of women and voters age 50+. Men and younger voters split their vote if Hulshof is the Republican nominee, and narrowly prefer Nixon in a race against Steelman. Against Hulshof, 15% of Republicans cross over to vote for Nixon; against Steelman, 20% of Republicans cross over. Should Missouri voters be required to produce a photo-ID when they vote? 64% of likely voters say "yes." Those who say "yes" favor each of the Republican candidates by 8 points; those who say "no" favor Nixon by 2 ½:1.
A mixed bag for Jay Nixon. The good news is the poll shows him beating both potential challengers. The bad news is they are gaining ground. If you are in Missouri, see Jay's website to find out how you can lend a hand.
And last, but certainly not least.......Phill Kline. Intolerant, wingnut, asshat extraordinaire in Johnson County, Kansas. The same Phill Kline that had been harassing women's clinics in Kansas and was defeated in the 2006 election for Kansas Attorney General. After his crushing defeat, the Kansas GOP stubbornly appointed him to the recently vacated Johnson County District Attorney position. At the time, he promised that he would not seek re-election. Being the honorable man that he is, he recently filed for......re-election. He now faces Steve Howe in a Republican primary. Incidentally, Steve Howe and the rest of the experienced attorneys in the DA's office were unceremoniously fired, without cause, on Phill Kline's first day in office. So, how do the Republican voters in NE Kansas (suburban Kansas City) feel about Phill Kline? SurveyUSA says:
Johnson County KS GOP Primary: Challenger Howe Has Lead Over Incumbent DA Kline: In a Republican primary for Johnson County District Attorney today, 07/31/08, five days until votes are counted, former Assistant District Attorney Steve Howe unseats incumbent DA Phill Kline, 52% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV in Kansas City MO. Among women, Howe leads by 13 points; among men, Howe leads by 4. Among voters age 18 to 49, Kline leads by 5; among voters age 50+, Howe leads by 19. Among voters who identify themselves as pro-life, Kline, known for investigating abortion clinics and filing criminal charges against one operated by Planned Parenthood in Overland Park, leads 2:1. Among those identifying as pro-choice, Howe leads 5:1. Among the 18% of voters who have already voted in the contest, Howe leads by 4 points; among those considered likely to vote on or before election day, Howe leads by 9. In a low-turnout Primary, small last-minute swings can materially influence the outcome. The contest is close enough, and Kline's profile high enough, that the final five days of campaigning may make a difference.
Ouch. Incumbent Kline is losing 44% to Howe's 52%. On the way to breakfast Sunday morning, I passed a hand made yard sign that read "Please God --- Anybody but Kline." Amen, neighbor....Amen. It seems like Johnson County voters don't much care for Kline's particular brand of wingnuttery. But, the race isn't over and Kline could make a comeback based on name recognition alone. If you are in Johnson County, Kansas or anywhere near Johnson County, Kansas --- get out to defeat Phill Kline. He simply must go....regardless of whether that leaves Democrats a stronger opponent in the long run. His terms as both Attorney General and Johnson County District attorney have been nothing short of an embarrassment for the state of Kansas. And there is no doubt that the women of Kansas - even Republican women - will rest a little easier knowing that Phill Kline won't be poking around in their medical records anymore. It is time for Johnson County voters - of all political stripes - to reject the extremist politics of Phill Kline and deliver the final blow to his political career.
Update: The "Please God - Anybody but Kline" sign wasn't the only eye-popping sign that I wandered by in Kansas yesterday: