There has been alot written in the recent past about the tightening of the polls. Then we hear about the 80,000 expected to hear Sen. Obama's speech versus the small numbers that show up for McCain. Obama gets $51 million versus $27 million for McCain. Two million new donors for Obama and some new fancy "bundlers" for McCain.
What gives?
Polls are carefully selected samples of a population. It's not possible to just go out and ask a bunch of people what they think. You have to find a bunch of the correct "samples" to count in the survey. There is a discussion of this process on Gallup's website which is exerpted below:
How are polls conducted?
by Frank Newport, Lydia Saad, David Moore
from Where America Stands, 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
posted at www.media.gallup.com
"In most polls, once interviewing has been completed, the data are carefully checked and weighted before analysis begins. The weighting process is a statistical procedure by which the sample is checked against known population parameters to correct for any possible sampling biases on the basis of demographic variables such as age, gender, race, education, or regionof country."
So they go out and look for a certain number of Democrats and a certain number of Republicans. A certain number of men, and a certain number of women. A certain number from each potential age group. They decide who to select by using, as mentioned above, "known population parameters." For presidential elections, the known parameters have to be the last election. I've read (I hope I'm remembering correctly) that twice as many people over 65 voted last time as those under 30. Does anyone really believe that the older models are going to hold true this time?
It is the only thing that makes sense. Using "known population parameters" does not account for the change in the ground game or for the enthusiasm of the young people. Not to mention the fact that most young people use cell phones and not land lines.
Take heart, Obama supporters. This is the stealth campaign.
One other thing. I think that the Obama campaign is keeping their power dry on McCain until after the Republican convention. Can't tear him down yet. They'd find a way to not nominate him. Best to wait until the point of no return.