Good morning, friends. As I've done the last three days, I'm posting an update for you on Hurricane Gustav. Unfortunately, I'm out of town with family, busy working on a house project, and on dial-up modem (ugh!). So, today's update will be quick and dirty. And I'm not going to run through spell checking and such. So, I apologize for any typos. Please bear with me. The critical thing is to get an update out to you folks.
Louisiana, north Texas, Mississippi and Alabama residents prepare!
Hurricane Gustav is now a major hurricane. The National Hurricane Center, as of 8AM EDT has Gustav up to 105kts (120mph). However, reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that, if anything, this is conservative (low). They have clocked maximum flight level winds of 114kts (130-135mph) and the pressure continues to fall (indicating intensification). At their flight level, the conversion to surface winds is nearly one-to-one. So, Gustav may be up around 110 or 115kts. He is a solid Category 3... perhaps even borderline Category 4. Though, I must add... I'm not sure whether or not NHC will upgrade him further in their 11AM EDT update. Estimated surface winds from the aircraft recon have not yet increased further.
As for where Gustav is headed. I am not an alarmist, but I'm getting worried for New Orleans. Why? Check this out. Here are the storm tracks from various models:
...and check out the raw numbers from the two hurricane-specific models... The latest HWRF model output can be found at that link. And the GFDL here. These are forecasts for 2AM. Notice their 6-hour forecasts and their eventual landfall points. Both aim towards central or western Louisiana for landfall. But their 6-hour forecast points, valid at 8AM this morning, are around 20.5N latitude and 81.8W longitude (slight variation between the two models). Now, look at the 8AM EDT satellite image from Gustav:
...it's tough to see thhe latitude and longitude lines on there, but Gustav's eye is very well defined. He is, without question, at 20.8N, 81.5W. This is, clearly, northeast of both hurricane model tracks. Now, mind you, there are two caveats here... 1) Storms "wobble" due to convective (thunderstorm) processes; so Gustav could easily swing back west, and 2) An early track deviation does not always lead to a similar end track deviation... sometimes the later deviation is compensated for because the overall pattern still ends up as forecast, and the storm still gets pushed to eventually where it was supposed to be in the first place; or sometimes, since the initial direction is also in error, the track deviations expand as the tracks diverge. So.....
it is impossible to know what Gustav's current track deviation will ultimately mean. But, odds are, he will not go much west of the current forecasts. He will either go on course or somewhat east. Therefore, New Orleans is likely at just as much of a risk as Morgan City, LA or Cameron/Lake Charles, LA. Given that Morgan City is slightly east-of-center and slightly east of the model consensus (which is, so far, verifying erroneously too far west), I will leave my expected landfall point as Morgan City.
Timing and intensity forecast? Unchanged. Wee hours Tuesday morning. Category 3. Gustav should easily reach Category 4 strength... maybe even 5... at some point. But he should eaken some prior to landfall. There is a modest risk that he'll be down to a Category 2 (or lower?) by landfall; let's hope for that. And there is a slight risk that he'll hold on as high as a Category 4 at landfall... let's hope not.
Bottom line... my epectations are unchanged. The weather model guidance has shifted a bit west. So, New Orleaneans may have breathed a very slight sigh of relief. Do not let down your gaurd!! Gustav is presently running EAST of projections. By the way, the latest recon fix, linked above, did, in fact, confirm Gustav's 8AM position. At 8:20AM they "fixed" his center at 20.7N, 81.6W. That is a shade southwest of where the satellite imagery makes it appear... likely because "blowoff" cloud tops from the deep convection on Gustav's west side may be obscuring a bit of the eye from the satellite. Nonetheless, that is still about 0.2 degrees both north and east of the HWRF and GFDL models... the two key hurricane models.
I've got to run, so, I'll end it there. I apologize for the lesser detail this morning. But I cannot emphasize enough the need for Gulf Coast residents to be prepared. And be aware of the potential for forecast track errors. The track looks fairly well set, and Gustav should come in pretty close to that. But, he will likely not come in precisely on track. And, right now, it looks like odds favor more of an east than a west error. That means that places like New Orleans, Biloxi, Pascagoula and Mobile need to not let down their guards!! Of course, some west deviation is possible, as these storms can wobble around a bit. So, even Houston and Galveston need to be on full, complete alert.
...also, please remember, the landfall timing is the time of the eye crossing the coast! Conditions will deteriorate long before that, on Monday. So, basically, as of this writing, anyone in harm's way has 48 hours to complete their preparations... not 72 hours. So, please finalize your preparations. And if you or your loved ones live in a coastal region down there, especially in the state of Louisiana, please heed the evacuation notices. And, though I doubt any "officials" down there are spending their time reading a dKos diary, this is a political site, so I suppose there's an outside chance. With that, I'd beg the officials to take the steps they need to be taking to prepare their populations. There remains a small chance for Gustav to peter out (stall offshore and weaken dramatically). Let's hope. But it's on the low end of the probabilities. So, in all likelihood, we're looking at a severe situation here.
That's all. I will likely not be able to update throughout the day today. But I may try. And I'll also try to get an update up on Sunday and Monday mornings.
UPDATE 11:25AM EDT ...very, very, very quick update. 11AM EDT NHC advisory is out. Unfortunately, but not unexpectedly, given the above discussion, they have nudged their track a bit to the east at landfall. They do remain west just enough for New Orleans to avoid the worst of Gustav, though. To be sure, New Orleans would get spanked, especially since they're in the northeast quadrant (the worst segment of the storm). However, the track remains just far enough away so that N.O. would not get into the actual eyewall.
...but NHC also noted in their write-up that it's unclear whether or not Gustav has resumed his more northwest (rather than northnorthwest) motion. So (and this is my wording, not their's) it seems plausible that further eastward adjustments could be forthcoming IF Gustav doesn't come back around to the left immediately. Most of the model guidance suggests he will hold more westward... in line with the NHC track as well. But as we've discussed and seen above, those models aren't perfect and, so far, are erring too far west.
...NHC did up Gustav to 110kts (125-130mph). That's a high-end Cat 3. But not really much change for the intensity at landfall... also Cat 3.
No other new data. New models come in within the net hour or two (not sure I can update on them). And no recon currently in the storm. And new satellite imagery looks like Gustav is holding his own.
UPDATEx2 3:00PM EDT ...okay, I'm a liar. I'm posting another update. Seriously, lots going on, so I wanted to get up another update. And thanks to the commenters for keeping readers informed!! ...like notifying folks that Gustav is now a Category 4. Here's your Category 4 Gustav as of 2PM:
...very intense. Crushing the Isle of Youth.
Reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating Gustav, but there is no recent update from them since the last National Hurricane Center advisory. That came out shortly after their special update, so it had essentially the same information... Gustav was a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140mph.
His position at 2PM was 21.6N, 82.5W. Of course, that's not specifically relevant to many of you, but I mention it so we can again compare to the recent model data. The latest hurricane-specific models (the GFDL and the HWRF) continue to run too far west in their 6-hour forecast positions (the 6-hour position on those links should match the 2PM position of Gustav). They are both better than their last run, but still too far west. And the HWRF has nudged east a bit (the GFDL has not). Bottom line is that the slightly more eastward track continues to verifiy and is what I continue to favor.
Here's a good map for many of the models:
...but please be aware that most of these are from the previous "run". There are newer runs on most of these. As I said, the HWRF (labeled HWFI on that image) has shifted a bit east. Nonetheless, even with the current eastward bias of Gustav, not all models have shifted east in their new runs not seen on that graphic. For example, the latest GFS (labeled AVNI on the graphic) looks like this:
...that is unchanged or maybe even a bit west of the previous run. Why would models due this, despite the current errors? Well, for one thing, the model may just be wrong. But, as discussed in my original post, sometimes the overall upper level pattern driving the track is unchanges, and these short-term errors are mere "oscillations"... not true changes in direction - as a result, with none of the guiding features shifted around, the storm is forced to end up right where it was originally predicted to anyway... in other words, Gustav may just turn back more to the west at some point.
Nonetheless, this continued too-far-west error re-inforces my belief that Gustav comes in on the east side of the model guidance... near Morgan City. And as for intensity, some of the best models are showing a bit less weakening, unfortunately. Check out the HWRF and GFDL links above. So, the odds of a Category 4 landfall are increasing. Still, with much less heat content in the northern Gulf (depth is just as important as temperature, and the northern Gulf is both cooler and shallower than the southern Gulf), and with some slight increase in shear expected... I'll stick with the Category 3 expectation. But do be aware that the possibility of a Category 2 (or even a Cat 1) landfall seems to be decreasing, while a Category 4 landfall possibility is increasing. In my mind, though... Category 3 still seems like the best bet.
On an additional note, something many commenters have homed in on, correctly... rain, rain, rain. Many runs of many models are stalling Gustav inland over southern or southwestern Louisiana. The strong fetch off of the Gulf of Mexico will produce massive rainfall amounts east of the center... out towards New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Biloxi, etc. Exactly how much depends on a lot of factor. I was going to post another pretty picture here of one of the model predictions, but they don't handle tropical precip very well. Someone will likely see well over a foot of rain, though.
New recon report ...shows Gustav with a 943mb pressure... down another 2mb. So, he continues to intensify. It's "fix" position was 21.7N, 82.7W. Nothing terribly informative about that position.
So.... no changes to the expected track and intensity of Gustav at landfall. But he does continue to push the boundaries a bit... to the east side and on the high end of the intensity scale. So, we do need to continue to monitor him extremely closely.