So the RNC is over now. The Democratic convention gave Obama/Biden a 7-8 point bump that lasted, well it's still there. The fear is that the RNC will undercut it. I just don't see it.
So far, looking at the tracking polls, Monday and Tuesday were duds for the Republicans. They didn't accomplish much or move anyone. Obama actually widened his gap after Tuesday. Then came Wednesday.
I fully expect there to be a little Palin bounce in today's tracker. The speech was well received by many (although it also caused the Democratic coffers to fill) so I do expect some movement. I just don't see it lasting. While filled with one liners, the speech didn't really say anything about policy. OK, Palin lives in Alaska and she hates Obama but what else was there? Moreover the attacks were all over the place and didn't really develop a theme. Before Palin, the theme of the convention was going to be Not Ready '08. Three days pounding that theme home would have caused some damage. Now though, having watched two days of the convention - I'm sorry, I love politics but I could not subject myself to the tedium of a McCain speech - I don't know what the overriding theme is. I can sum up the DNC themes - The party is unified behind Obama and John McCain would be more of the same. What's the RNC equivalent? I guess John McCain is a war hero would be one, but that's about it.
As for Palin, for the next month at least it sounds like they're going to restrict Palin to safe audiences. At the same time Clinton - and this is genius because not only is she the right gender, but she's not even on the ticket so it doesn't elevate Palin - is going to give speeches against the governor. If she sticks to "Iraq is a mission from God"/creationist/book banner/a raped 14 year old shouldn't be able to get an abortion/in favor of bridge to nowhere and earmarks (especially if they show that newspaper clipping where she excitedly wrote "We did Well!!!")/against sex ed/left her town in debt, well where can McCain go in response to it? Palin will win over the people who like those things but the rest of us will be appalled.
So Tuesday was a dud, Wednesday excited people and Thursday is being universally panned. The speech will move the trackers some today but will Thursday keep them going? Already Obama is doing the right thing, yawning off the attacks on him and saying, "OK, great, now where are you going to bring the country?" It's a wonderful counter because it doesn't even look that much like an insult.
The DNC gave Obama a boost because it turned Democratic voters support of him from the 70s to the 80s. Clinton speaking out against Palin can get it up to the mid 80s. McCain was already in the 90s for his base. He energized them, but if Palin's staying out of site and the speech starts to fade, where's the groundwork for a bounce? Maybe I'm just whistling in the dark, but I don't see what happened here that's going to change anything.
(Of course I didn't see the 2004 results coming in that way either but this is an optimistic diary...)