I flew from Florida to Ohio over the weekend, visiting some of my fiancees' family. Maybe it was the cocktail, maybe it was the fact that I'd been reading the new Kos book in-flight, but as we came in over Columbus, I was in a contemplative mood. I stared down at thousands of little suburban houses lined up under our flight path, and realized that in each one, there are likely a couple of voters who will decide the outcome of the Presidential election.
Photo Credit under CC by Scorpions and Centaurs on Flickr
It was an interesting visual that added perspective to the idea that we need to focus for the next two months on getting the people in those little houses on our side. Forget about Caribou Barbie. Forget about whether McCain is milking his POW status (the answer: Yes, but it plays well in the media, so we shouldn't bother talking about it, it makes us look petty and they're not going to approach it as a story from an angle that's favorable to us no matter what.) Forget about all the distractions; those are the things the Republicans want us to focus on, that's why they've made such a spectacle and a joke of their campaign. For the next two months, we need to MOBILIZE, particularly in Ohio and Florida. We need to get Democratic voters in the voting booths on November 4th. The GOP is already up to its usual dirty work of purging voter rolls in swing states, and we need to work that much harder to ensure that we make up for the resulting shortfall.
I had lots of random interactions with people over the weekend, but the one that I liked the best was the last person I talked to before flying back to Florida. I was washing my hands and the older guy next to me was wearing an Obama shirt. As we were walking out I asked him if he was from Ohio, and he said yes.
"In that case, I'm really glad you're wearing that shirt, sir. As goes Ohio, so goes the Nation, right?"
And he yelled, right there in the terminal, exuberantly,
"Here's your next PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!!"
He gave me a high five. People were looking at us kind of weird, but whatever. I was glad to see someone so fired up, and got on my plane happy. As we took off, and when we landed back in Florida, I couldn't stop thinking about those little houses. Ohio and Florida are important, close states. One of the most troubling things to me this election season has been the "Scenario Analysis" scorecard from Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com.
Here's the current one:
Now, the two scenarios that keep me awake at night are "Obama Loses OH, Wins Election," and "Obama wins FL when losing OH." Obviously we're in good shape relative to McCain, but Ohio remains vital. Half the time we lose Ohio, we lose (relative to the current 68% overall win percentage.) But if McCain loses Ohio, we win, in almost any scenario. Florida isn't close enough to be included in the scenario analysis for a similar metric, (presumably) but I imagine the numbers would make for an even more definite victory, and if we win both, we win this election, period.
I don't know if Florida is winnable. I think Ohio is the easier of the two states to swing, but none of that matters. I am a believer in the Fifty-State Strategy, and I am not encouraging Obama, the DCCC, or any other national entity to move resources here when they are needed elsewhere. What I do want is for Kossacks in Florida and Ohio to get moving. Redouble your efforts. Reach out to everyone you can. Start kicking serious ass. Ohioans particularly have a great opportunity with the registration/early voting window that runs from September 30 through November 3. Get out there and pound the pavement, because the thing that's going to win this election is face-to-face voter contacts, not advertising dollars, and frankly they need to be spending those dollars elsewhere. WE must win this election one person at a time.
I'm still thinking about the thousands of little houses I saw as I dropped from the sky into Columbus, and the thousands more in the Orlando suburbs I saw on the way home. In them are the people that will decide the fate of this nation. I want to make sure that every one of them knows where we stand.
Here are some links to get you started. Call your local Democratic Party, and get going. Make phone calls, knock on doors, stuff envelopes, do whatever it takes.
Donate to Obama for America
Florida Democratic Party Contacts, County-by-County
Ohio Democratic Party Contacts, County-by-County
ActBlue Florida
ActBlue Ohio
Obama for America Florida
Obama for America Ohio
EDIT - I accidentally hit publish on this a little earlier than I intended, I was going to try to add more to it in the way of links. If any commenters have any good ones for these two important states, I'll put them up here as I get them. Thanks!