No, it's not a snarky title. I am serious.
None of us could sleep well when Obama's numbers went down. We screamed and yelled until the campaign modified its steady-as-she-goes game plan to go on the attack. And sure enough, the sharper attack combined with Palin revelations and news on the economy are causing the poll numbers to creep back up (every tracking poll has improved by 1 or 2 points today).
This is great, right? Well, yes for our sleeping-all-night problem. But it's not about us. I hope the poll trend will stop.
Of course polls aren't reliable. Their importance is not that they tell the exact truth but that they affect press, campaign and voter behavior.
First, as we all know, the press loves a horserace. So when Obama was down, the press grew a pair (even Fox) and started calling McCain's ads lies. If Obama is up by 5 the same ads will become uninteresting to the press. They will fall over each other to prove evenhandedness by misrepresenting and nitpicking about the Obama campaign. What they want is to pull the leader down.
Second, and probably most serious, a cornered snake strikes back. McCain has already shown that he will do whatever it takes to win. If he's down in the polls, you haven't seen nothing yet. Starting after the third debate we're going to see a blizzard of lies, lies, push polls, e-mail smears and lies. We'll probably see that anyway, but less of it if they think they have a chance to win clean.
Third, there is a risk of complacency. The Obama campaign may fall back to safe-but-boring if they think they are ahead. But things can turn on a dime, especially if the McCain campaign strikes back at the last minute with its sleaziest deceptions.
So if you're praying that Obama will deal McCain a death blow in the first debate and McCain's poll numbers will spiral downwards until he fails to win even his home state, well, it won't happen, it isn't necessary, and it's not even a good thing. The best thing would be the trajectory of Reagan's campaign in 1980: things firm up just before the election. Like Reagan, the most important thing for Obama is to gain the low-information voters' confidence. This will come slowly and take all three debates. (Yes, I know about early voting, but I think its importance is overstated. The people who are voting early know their minds, they're not in play.)
As for sleeping, I recommend hot malted milk for the next seven weeks. (I myself am taking Ambien for the duration.)