(Not really a diary, but of enough interest to post anyhow)
At Nate Silver's great site http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ there was a dramatic change in the last few hours.
Earlier today, his projection had Obama with a 45% chance of winning. His latest update has Obama with a better than 61% chance of winning.
We have to wait for Nate's update to fully understand the drivers, but key were new polls in the Midwest and Colorado, together with steady progress in the national polls.
Note that the electoral vote projections there are averages across many scenarios, not the single most likely outcome (which is that big spike in his simulation graph showing a high chance of a narrow Obama win).
To add some context, here's Eric Kleefeld over at TPM:
Obama Expanding His Lead In The Tracking Polls
By Eric Kleefeld - September 18, 2008, 1:56PM
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with all four of them showing some small positive movement for Barack Obama as he expands his recently regained national lead:
Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama moved into a narrow lead of 47%-45%.
Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 48%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, McCain had a bare edge of 48%-47%.
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 46%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 45%-42%.
Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-44%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is now ahead by a margin of 47.9%-45.1%, compared to yesterday's lead of 46.9%-45.6%
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...
And not directly related to this topic, but for your reading pleasure and an illustration of how McCain has lost the press, take a look at:
John McCain and the Lying Game
By Joe Klein Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2008
...
The situation has gotten so intense that we in the media have slipped our normal rules as well. Usually when a candidate tells something less than the truth, we mince words. We use euphemisms like mendacity and inaccuracy ... or, as the Associated Press put it, "McCain's claims skirt facts." But increasing numbers of otherwise sober observers, even such august institutions as the New York Times editorial board, are calling John McCain a liar. You might well ask, What has McCain done to deserve this? What unwritten rules did he break?
...
McCain's lies have ranged from the annoying to the sleazy, and the problem is in both degree and kind. His campaign has been a ceaseless assault on his opponent's character and policies, featuring a consistent—and witting—disdain for the truth.
http://www.time.com/...