ABC and Washington Post have a hot hot fat lady singing poll out today that sorta explains the Steve Schmidt Meltdown earlier....
Obama: 51%
McCain: 43%
IN VIRIGINIA!!!! (with leans among registered voters)
This confirms Survey USA from earlier today. If VA is really pushing 50% for Obama, the fat lady is warming up!
Among likely voters, Obama holds 49%-46%
With Third Party: 50% Obama, 45% McCain
From their write up
Economic jitters and a favorable Democratic climate are contributing to a competitive presidential contest in Virginia, a traditionally Republican state in national elections but one where Democrats have won the last three races for governor or U.S. Senate.
He holds a 10-point lead over John McCain among registered voters in trust to handle the economy; a bigger, 23-point advantage in understanding Americans' economic problems; and large head-to-head leads in vote preference among those who cite the economy as their top issue and who express worry about its direction.
McCain's also hurt by his perceived proximity to George W. Bush – 53 percent of registered voters in the state think McCain would lead in the same direction as Bush, hardly popular since 83 percent think the country's seriously off on the wrong track. And by a 20-point margin, more think Obama would bring needed change to Washington.
With White Women, McCain holds a 5% Lead, 1% better than Jim Webb did!
And whose mind made up (80% of total) ?
Obama: 54%
McCain: 46%
Enthused
Obama: 64%
McCain: 45%
Party ID:
Democrats: 33%
Republicans: 28%
There is no good news for McCain or his hack campaign staff in this poll...
If Virginia goes to Obama, it's Good Night and Good Luck baby...
Update: here is the Post write up, of course casting it as a "tight" race...
Among Obama's biggest advantages in the poll came on the question of who would do more to shake up Washington. On this measure, a clear majority said Obama would do more, despite McCain's efforts in recent weeks to position himself as the true reformer.
"I am looking for a leader who is young, dynamic and wants to try to make the changes we need for all kinds of things from social security to energy to dealing with foreign countries," said Sandra Blanchard, 71, a retired music teacher from Fairfax County who plans to vote for Obama.
And some geography
That includes a geographic split in the state. Overall, 59 percent of Northern Virginia voters support Obama -- very close to the 60 percent number Democratic strategists identify as crucial, and the level Kaine and Webb achieved in their wins. About three in 10 voters live in the area, and the numbers reflect how deeply the region has altered the Commonwealth's political landscape in favor of Democrats. Obama's 24-point lead in Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun counties is in line with the Democratic advantages in the past two statewide elections.
and the money quote
"There ain't nobody else to vote for," said Robert Moyers, 53, an Obama supporter who works at a chemical company in Bedford in southern Virginia. "I don't like McCain because he is for big business and the little man doesn't have a chance. I think Obama is for creating jobs for the younger people, and the Republicans are just working so the rich can get richer and the poor get poorer."
God Bless Virginia!!! If you live in a Red State like me and want to adopt one, Virginia (along with CO) is about as good as it comes... Work from afar or from home here.
With IA and NM breaking hard for Obama, and MN, WI, MI and PA expected to come home, VA will be enough to lift us to 273-265 (Even without NH)!!! There is hard work to be done, but the finish line is getting in sight. With 45 days to go and polls breaking in our clincher states our way, the head of steam is building fast... Let's push it on down the road!
Update: Rasmussen has a poll out this afternoon too, via Fox News, which shows McCain @ 50-48% lead. I'm not going to crap on it too much, just know the source and the story line it's driving. Rasmussen is prided upon accuracy just before voting. We're 45 days ahead of voting, so he can be wildely off at this point. Additionally, this ABC poll picked up a +5% Democratic Party ID advantage that is unusual in the context of the 2004 Exit Polls. Likely, Rasmussen averaged that away giving McCain the lead. The question is, Is there really an advantage? We'll see in November, but if I had to be $1,000,000, I'd put my money on Obama's GOTV.
Also, Let's average today's three polls:
Obama: 51%, 50%, 48% = 49.66%
McCain: 45%, 44%, 50% = 46.33%