While watching CNN today to get updates on Bushco's latest "crisis", I stuck around long enough to catch CNN's Electoral Map update. For those who don't catch the results from CNN's Electoral Map, it has, compared to other maps, generally had much closer results between Obama and Mcain. Today's map showed Obama at 223 EV and McCain at 200, with 115 EV rated at Toss-Up. But as Wolf got into the numbers, I found what appears to be a discrepancy. Now, CNN is a bit different, in that in addition to actual polling, they also include results from "voting trends and ad spending".
The clue to a possible discrepancy as I watched today was how CNN allocated EVs between MI and WV. According to Wolf, Michigan rated as a Toss-Up, even though Obama was polling 51-46% (MoE - 3.5). However, West Virginia was rated as lean McCain, even thought McCain was polling only 50-46%, 3.5.
So it appears that if Obama is ahead by 5 in Michigan (and breaking the 50% barrier), it is a Toss-Up. But if McCain is ahead by 4 in WV, it leans McCain.
I decided to look as deeply as possible into CNN's polls, and do my own calculations. Basically, I took the tack that if a poll showed one candidate ahead by more than the Margin of Error, I would award that state to whomever was ahead. Things got very interesting, very fast.
First let's assign Obama his CNN Safe and Lean states. Obama is at 223 (CA, OR, WA, NM, IA, IL, PA, NY, VT, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI). I reviewed all available polling data for these states, and in all of them, Obama was well ahead of the MoE. For McCain, his Safe and Lean states total 200 EVs (AK, AZ, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, WV, KY, TN, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS).
However, an immediate problem for McCain is NC, with 15 votes. The most recent CNN/Time poll (9/14 - 9/16) shows the race at M - 48, O - 47, MoE, 3.5, which means that under my rules, NC becomes a Toss-Up state, reducing McCain's EVs to 185.
And Obama loses no states. In fact, he picks up 4 states which CNN/Time has as Toss-Up. CO, with 9 EVs; (most recent poll 9/21 - 9/23), O - 51, M - 47, MoE, 3.5. MI with 17 EVs; (9/21 - 9/23), O - 51, M - 46, MoE, 3.5. MN with 10 EVs; (8/31 - 9/2), O - 53, M - 41, MoE, 3.5 (Note, CNN/Time has since dropped MN from a 12 point Obama lead to 10, but I could not find access to the polling.) NH with 4 EVs; (9/7 - 9/8),
O - 51, M - 45, MoE, not available.
Adding these EV's today Obama's base of 223 gives him 263 (to McCain's revised 185).
Now let's look at what I consider the real Toss-Up states.
WI with 10 EVs; (9/14 - 9/16), O - 50, M - 47, MoE, 3.0.
FL with 27 EVs; (9/14 - 9/16), O - 48, M - 48, MoE, 3.5.
OH with 20 EVs; (9/14 - 9/16), O - 47, M - 45, MoE, 3.0.
NC with 15 EVs; (9/14 - 9/16), O - 47, M - 48, MoE, 3.5.
And there are three more states which may be within reach of Obama.
VA with 13 EVs; (9/7 - 9/8), O - 46, M - 50, MoE, not available (CNN/Time currently has VA as a Toss-Up).
WV with 5 EVs; (9/21 - 9/23), O - 46, M - 50, Moe, 3.5 (currently rated lean McCain).
IN with 11 EVs; (9/14 - 9/16), O - 45, M - 51, MoE, 3.5 (currently rated lean McCain).
So, there is my analysis of the CNN/Time polls. Is CNN gaming the Electoral Map? I don't really know, especially with their including ad spending and trends, but it seems that this analysis is more in line with other polling (including 538 and OpenLeft's 'poll of polls' methods). And this analysis would seem to open some questions that CNN is not addressing.
Enjoy.
Update: CNN/Time poll of Nevada, but it is very old.
NV with 5 EVs; (8/24 - 8/26), O - 49, M - 44, MoE, 4%.