Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 42 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Prairie Home Companion! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
The all-important, solid blue state of MINNESOTA is up for discussion today. Join me below the fold...
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
Minnesota is a solid blue state with more Democratic Presidential EV allocations than any other. The Democratic party here is called the "Democratic Farmer-Labor party", which is a masterstroke in reminding the farmers of the farm belt that we, and not the Republicans, are the party that represents them. Hence, Democratic candidates have a DFL next to their names, instead of just the D.
BLOGS: MN Campaign Report is the best single-state blog focused on Minnesota. Good job, guys!
http://www.mncampaignreport.com/
PRESIDENT: : Minnesota is the only state in the union to have voted for the Democratic candidate for President in ALL of the last eight elections, and this year will be no exception. McCain tried hard to get a toehold here, but the spectacle of the police-state convention arresting journalists, coupled with the public dissing of Governor Pawlenty for the VP slot, has pretty much ruined the GOP’s chances here. Safe Obama.
SENATE: No surprise, this is THE BIG ONE for Minnesota 2008! Was there any doubt? The quest of Democrat Al Franken to replace colorless Republican incumbent Norman Coleman is, at the time of this writing, the closest Senate race in the nation, at a time when there are half a dozen tossups in the works.
As is often the case, each side has been its own worst enemy. In Coleman’s favor, Franken is a colorful comedian and may be a bit too flashy for Minnesota’s famously slow, reserved sensibilities. In Franken’s favor, Coleman is a colorless nobody who can’t be seen when he campaigns standing in front of an ochre colored background. Also, Franken is much more than a comedian; he’s a very thoughtful, caring, intelligent and articulate political observer, as anyone knows who has read such books as Lies, and the Lying Liars who Tell them and The Truth (with jokes!). He’ll be an incredible force for good in the Senate.
This is essential in our quest to get to 60 Democratic seats in the Senate. We need nine pickups (ten, if you refuse to count Joe Lieberman as a Democrat), and it seems to me the Franken race will be pickup #8, if we work like Hell to make it happen (after VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, OR and NC, in about that order), leaving one or two more longshot pickups that must come from among ME, OK, KY, MS, TX, KS, GA and NE.
Go donate to Al, please, make it happen. He’s good enough, he’s smart enough, and doggone it, we like him! Plus, this is the Paul Wellstone seat, and they’re not allowed to keep it!
http://alfranken.com/
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE: Nothing up this year.
STATE LEGISLATURE:
House of Representatives: 85 DFL, 47 R, 2 Indy. Majority of 38, close to double! Excellent job!
Senate: 45 DFL, 22 R, Majority 23. That’s a majority of more than the total number of Republicans! Dude, we RULE that Legislature!
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1— Tim Walz (Inc D). The Iowa border, including Rochester. The district formerly held by veteran Democrat Tim Penny, this district returned to its solid Democratic roots following a decade-long spell of Democratus Interruptus when a Newtist held the district. Welcome back, Southern Minnesota.
This was one of those newly captured districts we figured would be on the defensive this year, but thankfully, the Republicans have their work cut out for them trying to defend their three remaining House districts and one Senate seat, so this one is a likely retention.
http://www.timwalz.org/
District 2—South Metro suburbs. Another swing district that’s been shrinking as the rural districts become larger and fewer, the Second has changed party hands often. This year, Steve Sarvi, an Iraq veteran and former mayor of Watertown, has an excellent chance of taking the district from incumbent Gooper John Kline. With some good Obama and Franken coattails, we can do it.
http://www.stevesarvi.org/
District 3—West Hennepin County. Iraq veteran Ashwin Maida (DFL) is running in an open seat that has been becoming bluer and bluer the more its borders have shrunk with each new redistricting. This is probably one of the top ten likely pickups this year.
http://www.madiaforcongress.com/
District 4— St. Paul. Betty McCollum (Inc DFL) is safe.
District 5—Minneapolis. Keith Ellison (Inc DFL) is safe. Ellison is the first Muslim to go to Congress, prompting such wimpy fucktards as Virgil Goode (R, VA-05) to get the vapors and predict the end of Christianity in America (Yes, really). Which raises the question, how can Republicans be expected to be brave in the face of terrorism and economic challenge when they soil their britches in cowardice at the sight of a non-Christian patriotic American in Congress? Will they only fight at odds better than 434 to 1?
District 6—North metro suburbs. A distinctly pink district where Democrats are at a disadvantage. However, as with such other districts as ID-01, OH-02, and NJ-05, the Republicans have overreached and picked Michelle Bachmann, a wingnut so disgusting that even Republicans in this district are not comfortable with her, and therefore the 6th will be competitive for as long as Bachmann continues to stink up the place.
Our nominee is the delightfully Named Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former state Transportation Director and the mayor of Blaine. With a name that fun to say, how can he lose? C’mon, all together now, Tinklenberg, Tinklenberg, Tinklen all the way...
http://www.tinklenberg08.com/
District 7—West Minnesota, the site of the Coen Bros. movie Fargo and on paper the most conservative district. However, like Ike Skelton in a similar Missouri district, Colin Peterson is extremely popular and a safe bet for re-election. Ja? Ja!
District 8—The Iron Range of North Minnesota, including Duluth. The most solidly Democratic rural district, due to a deep liberal tradition of the miners’ unions. James Oberstar (Inc DFL) is Representative For Life.
REDISTRICTING MINNESOTA: Our shot at running the table depends on the 2010 Governor election, when Pawlenty will have had his two terms. By the time of redistricting, Districts 1, 7 and 8 will have further expanded due to declining rural population, districts 3, 4 and 5 will have compacted due to increasing Twin Cities population, and districts 2 and 6 will be like a donut around the Twin Cities.
We’d have a tactical choice to make: we could make the 6th into an unwinnable GOP district while drawing the other 7 comfortably safe for Democrats (in the case of Peterson, comfortably safe for him, anyhow).
Or we could make eight D +1 or 2 districts and go for the perfect 8D, 0R lineup by dividing Twin Cities on a wheel and spoke model, with five districts that include some red suburbs, some swing territory, and some solid blue urban precincts. If we did that, McCollum and especially Ellison would likely be primaried out in favor of more moderate Democrats, and several districts would be vulnerable to takeover in the event of a GOP wave. In the other scenario, they’d be safer, but—a safe GOP district in blue Minnesota would be bad. Especially if the one safe Gooper was Bachmann. There’s something to be said on both sides.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:
Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nevada (Jill Derby, NV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part One (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part Two(State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Tennessee (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Washington (Darcy Burner, WA-08) http://www.dailykos.com/...