If you listen to the talking heads today in the lead-up to the Biden / Palin debate, you have likely heard that all Palin has to do is be "likable," to prove she is a regular American. One of us. That has been the line coming out of the McCain camp as well. "Weak Republican" Joe Lieberman went so far as to say on MSNBC that Palin doesn't have to pass "a final college exam" but simply prove she is a middle-class American and that she speaks for us.
Here's why that thinking is wrong....
It is mistaken to think that Palin's path to victory is the same one you'd find in a high-school class election. Likability is not her problem. It's competence. And that presents major problems for her and the GOP.
1. The debate is problematic for her. Now, you may be saying "But everyone said that this style favors her!" And to be sure, there are advantages for Palin. The 90-second response time and limited interaction format favors Palin's ability to dissemble and say nothing at all. But here's the thing; she has never debated in a national-level debate. And that is a lot different than debating at a state level.
On a state level there is a limited number of issues you have to prep for. Some are universal, like health-care and infrastructure. Others are state-specific, like oil revenue for Alaska or water rights in some southwestern states. But overall, in a state-level debate you pretty much know what will be asked and can prepare accordingly.
On a national level the limits are removed. You can be asked about anything. Specific concerns of a state or region you aren't familiar with. International issues you may not have heard of. Even extra-planetary issues (e.g. the possible long-term ramifications on the global satellite network and space travel by the increased testing of ASAT weapons).
There is no way Palin can cram for that kind of debate and sound coherent. If you try to dissemble on an issue you know nothing about, you sound like a fool. And while Biden may not know everything either, he knows enough that he could likely sound plausible when talking about any issue.
A secondary concern for Palin; her last debate experience was in a three-way race. That cuts down on the total time spent on a single candidate and allows someone to drop back a bit if necessary. In a one-on-one format, a candidate can't do that. Palin has to be "on" for the whole time.
2. Her issue isn't likability. In poll after poll (here's one of the latest), Palin's problem is not that she is disliked. People find her as empathetic as Joe Biden. Her problem is that people do not believe she can do the job.
A majority of voters do not believe she understands complex issues and is "insufficiently experienced" to take over as President if necessary. And as we have seen time after time, in video clip after video clip, they are right. That is her major weakness and it is bringing down the McCain campign in poll after poll.
So tonight Palin has to prove she is qualified for the job. That means she has to demonstrate knowledge, real knowledge, of the issues. In one or two cases that will be possible for her. Overall, she simply will not be able to do it. And as she dissembles over and over again, people will notice that.
3. Her plan to attack Biden. On MSNBC around 2:00 PM, Mike Allen from Politico came on with some news about Palin's plan for the debate. She plans to go after Biden and his policies (read more from Politico here). Some angles of attack apparently include Senator Biden saying that the wealthy paying more taxes at this time would be "patriotic", Biden referring to North Korea as a "paper tiger" in 2006, and that he voted for the Iraq war while Obama didn't.
First off, how stupid of Palin's campaign was it to let this get out before the debate? To say you are going to attack is one thing; Biden's camp said they are going to keep the focus on McCain. It's another to detail what you are going to do. Biden's group now has, what, almost six hours to develop comebacks for those attacks?
Second, those comebacks are obvious. Going in reverse order:
- Admit your vote on the AUMF was wrong. Many officials have done this and the public has forgiven them. We don't expect out leaders to be perfect, just to do the best they can for us and the country.
- North Korea is a paper tiger, by-and-large. Their military, for all its size, is woefully under-equipped. Their nuclear test, scary as it was, was a bust. And they are always one bad harvest away from complete famine.
- As Teddy Roosevelt said: "The man of great wealth owes a peculiar obligation to the State, because he derives special advantages from the mere existence of government. Not only should he recognize this obligation in the way he leads his daily life and in the way he earns and spends his money, but it should also be recognized by the way in which he pays for the protection the State gives him." If Palin wants to lump Biden and TR together, I say Biden cheerfully agrees to it.
If she attacks and attacks and attacks, she risks damaging her one positive (likability) and alienating more independents. Those are voters McCain must have if he stands any chance of winning in November. Also, by going over Biden's past, she reinforces his wealth of experience and her lack of it. And that brings me to the fourth problem she has.
4. The framing for her performance. In the lead-up to this debate, Palin's supporters have said over and over again that she speaks for Middle America. That she is "one of us." That she represents the common man, "Joe Six-Pack."
They think that little of us?
As people watch her stumble over questions and say things that are incomprehensible, will they appreciate the fact that the GOP thinks they are just like her? As she tries to defend charging for rape kits in Wasilla, will Middle America like the fact that McCain's campaign thinks they would do the same?
I like to think I am a little smarter than Palin. I think you do as well. I'm pretty sure we aren't the only ones.
Palin has an almost-impossible task tonight. She has to attack Biden without damaging her likability while also dissembling intelligently on a limitless number of issues without sounding foolish. I don't think she can pull it off.
By comparison, all Biden has to do is not stick his foot in his mouth. Call that about 80-20 in favor of him not doing it.
I think Biden wins tonight and McCain's last hope of regaining some ground in the race goes down the tubes.