I can't say enough great things about Poblano (and I call him Poblano because I miss the days when he used to hang around her rather than spend all his time getting interviewed by Keith Olbermann and the LA Times -- I kid, I kid.)
At this point in the game, I'm clicking on FiveThirtyEight at least every 45 minutes or so, as I'm sure most of you are too. But he doesn't need my praise -- his excellent work speaks for itself.
I just wanted to underscore, if I could, a conclusion that Poblano seems to have arrived at in a recent post. I don't want you to miss out on this because if Poblano is correct in this assumption, it means the election will go firmly for Barack Obama and there's almost nothing John McCain can do about it.
In Poblano/Nate Silver's post, "Why it (probably) won't work," he discusses the McCain campaign's decision to go negative, and points out why McCain/Palin's sleazy attempts to tar and feather Obama with those tenuous ties to an aging 60s radical will not work.
First of all, Poblano bemoans (as I do) that this move may mean the end of this campaign's high-minded, generally positive tone on both sides. Say what you will about the candidates, but in general this campaign has been more issues-based than most (cosmetics and swine notwithstanding), and I'm sad to have to admit that it looks like those days may not return.
Poblano points out how significant it was during the first debate that:
- Barack Obama frequently mentioned the middle class and the issues that are important to them, all but pointing at himself and saying "Yo -- I'm your man, middle class."
- Not only did John McCain never mention the middle class, he instead chose to fall back on the tired GOP talking points about trickle-down economics -- a concept that Barack has been forcefully speaking out against for weeks now (IE: "The pain has trickled down, the profits have not.")
That said, I'm practically smacking my chops in anticipation that Obama will continue to flail McCain for his tin ear when it comes to how this economy has been almost the sole burden on the middle class. More and more is expected of us, and a lot of us are getting the same paycheck we got when Bush took office.
At this point, Poblano brings up something that I have never before considered. The press likes to say that this election is all about Barack -- it's his to win or lose, and McCain could just as easily have been Huckabee or Romney or anyone else. He's a placeholder, and Barack is the star.
But consider this:
the principal reason why McCain has been able to remain in a relatively tight race with Obama, even as the Republican brand is in shambles, is because he has largely been able to distance his brand from that of the Republicans.
This addresses a common complaint made by Kossacks: "Why, oh, why isn't McCain 30 points behind?!" Well, even though most of us see McCain for the craven, partisan panderer that he is, a lot of people have fallen for his attempts to distance himself from the GOP.
In short, McCain has made his own brand -- the Maverick brand, for lack of a better phrase -- rather than running on the Republican brand. This kept the race pretty tight there for a while and gave McCain a fighting chance at winning. That is, until he started to crap where he sleeps, thus damaging his own brand.
If the McCain campaign brings up William Ayers -- or Jeremiah Wright -- it will almost certianly be seen as attack politics. [snip] So unless McCain's oppo research team is sitting on some fresh news about Obama's ties to Ayers or Wright, the stories are liable to be reported as a typical partisan attack, which will impeach their credibility in the public's eyes and reduce their staying power.
This isn't the first mistake McCain has made in this regard. His political stunt "suspending" his campaign. The increasingly obvious craziness and ineptness of his running mate. And now the dirty pool distraction of Ayers, Wright and Rezko -- these are all deliberate choices the McCain camp has made, and each of them is damaging to the Maverick brand.
If you want further proof of how the Maverick brand has fallen flat on its face, I suggest that you watch the next debate on a network that does those dial-pool, instant-feedback reaction polls. You'll see what I saw when I watched the VP debate: Every time the Republican says the word "Maverick," there's a visible drop in the audience reaction.
Still, one of the most important factors that Poblano has uncovered is not the unraveling of McCain's brand. It's the fact that the middle class may have finally decided that Obama is their guy.
As Poblano put it, once Obama injected the middle class into the debate, McCain started losing credibility with the audience.
From there forward in that debate, dial testers reacted poorly when McCain attacked Obama, or appeared to be contemptuous of him.
Has Barack Obama finally and at long last done what the pundits said would be impossible for him? Has he won over the middle class? If that is true -- this thing is all but finished for McCain.
What do you think?