Four years ago, a last-minute from bin Laden was credited with swinging the election to Bush. At fivethirtyeight.com, a perceptive article by Rany Jazayerli discusses the possibility that it could happen again. Extracts below the fold.
Bin Laden wasn’t simply trying to hurt America on 9/11: he was trying to start World War III...
So when it came to the 2004 election, bin Laden was neither pro-Bush nor pro-Kerry. He was pro-war. And whichever candidate was most likely to sustain, or even escalate, that war was his man. That candidate was clearly George W. Bush, which meant it was time to turn on the cameras and burn a DVD.
This time around...we have a candidate who talks about maintaining U.S. forces in Iraq for 100 years if necessary, and sings songs in public about pre-emptively bombing Iran, which would set yet another gear turning in bin Laden’s scheme to bring about global war. Once again it appears that bin Laden would prefer the Republican candidate...
I don't think it'll be 2004 again this time. With proper preparation, the fallout from a bin Laden video supporting McCain by attacking him can be managed. Even in 2004, there was maybe a couple-percent swing, and this year that may not be enough to defeat Obama.
Still, there's a lot of unhatched-chicken-counting going on here at DailyKos. There are 3.5 weeks left and anything could happen. A good chunk of Obama's lead is low-info voters upset about the economy, but low-info voters are very easily swayed.
McCain needs a game-changer, and he's got a friend in Osama.