As Obama has said, and many of us have been warning, now is no time to get complacent or to let up. The national polls are tightening, albeit not as dramatically as the Republicans would have you think. Here's how we win this thing.
Barack said, "Don't get cocky." And he's right. There's still two weeks to go, and while he's got a strong lead, anything can happen. The national polls have tightened a little bit, and they'll continue to as the last undecideds make up their minds. But Obama is still in the driver's seat here. The Kerry states are trending overwhelmingly towards Obama. So far the only state that's really even close among those - and it's trending hard to Obama recently - is Minnesota. We're hardly having to play even a little defense in those states. Obama needs 19 more electoral votes to win.
The problem for McCain is a lot of other states. If he holds the Bush '04 states, obviously he wins. But Iowa is looking extremely strong for Obama. They remember McCain's grumpy interview with the Des Moines Register, and they also remember that Obama worked the state harder than anyone, especially in the freezing winter months. That's seven electoral votes. Then there's Virginia. Obama is trending very well there. That's another 13 electoral votes. Add those two together and you get 20 EVs.
That's right, if Obama holds the Kerry states (very likely) and wins Iowa and Virginia, that's the ballgame.
But there's a lot of other swing states. Obama is doing well in Colorado, and from reports from family there, the campaign is working the state hard. That's 9 electoral votes. Nevada is a dogfight. If Obama can nab that one, that's 5 EVs. He's surging in Missouri - although the lead is nowhere close to solid, that would be a sweet 11 EV pickup. North Dakota, of all places, is actually in play. It's a longshot, but that's 3 more EVs. North Carolina, once a very distant hope, is extremely close, and early turnout looks to be huge. 15 EVs there, and a lot of African-Americans and college students to vote there. New Mexico is looking bluer and bluer. That's 5 more EVs.
Obama needs 19 EVs. The list of swing states above (including the Iowa and Virginia examples) has 68 up for grabs. Obama only needs to get 19 of those. He's got a very good shot at 34 of them, and a good chance at all of them.
The best part of this? Notice I didn't include Florida or Ohio. Winning either of those states means Obama takes the presidency. And there's gotta be a big push in those states.
Then there's a some longshots that have the potential to be huge upsets. As has been well documented already, Georgia is already seeing massive turnout in the AA vote. There's a chance the state could actually flip. I have heard (and correct me if I'm wrong) that the campaign is asking people in nearby states to go to Montana, meaning the internals may be telling them to take a shot there. There's also a longshot at nabbing one of Nebraska's EVs. West Virginia, of all places, has a chance to go blue. Mississippi has a large African-American population, and if they show up in droves it may also flip the state. Indiana has a slight chance of going blue for the first time in decades. That's 41 more EVs. Getting any of those would be a way of tossing McCain a box full of anvils.
This is why now, more than ever, we need to jam that accelerator pedal to the floor. Don't worry about the national polls. Keep blue states blue, and work the swing states hard. I live in Arizona, a state that's as red as they come, but it's right next door to New Mexico. I'm heading there to go door-to-door soon. If you're in a red state, or an extremely safe blue state, and you're near a swing state, consider taking a trip out and doing the same. Hit the phones. And drop Obama some coin. Get those early votes in the bag. If we beat the GOP at getting out the vote, we will have a President Obama.
Go and GOTV. Let's win this thing.